| Abstract: | 波斯灣戰爭、科索伏戰爭及美伊戰爭後，國際軍事學者認為戰爭節奏如此快速首推C4ISR系統、精準導引彈藥等先進科技。俄軍在驚覺與美軍的世代差後加速軍事改革的節奏，軍事學者相繼提出「第六代戰爭」、「非接觸戰爭」等論述。1970年代蘇軍曾率先提出新軍事技術改革的觀點，然軍備競賽導致經濟持續衰退近三十年，此期間歷經蘇聯解體、車臣戰爭等，軍事改革仍以裁軍及軍、兵種縮編作為改革主軸。普丁總統就任後，適逢國際能源價格攀升，外匯持續增加的情況下，俄軍除持續裁減兵力外，提高國防預算挹注傳統武力建設、組織重整及發展快速反應部隊等要項。本文試圖探討葉爾欽至普丁時期俄軍軍事改革之演變及車臣戰爭與軍事改革之因果關係。本文認為葉爾欽執政時期，在北約東擴及恢復俄國大國地位的前提下，俄軍僅有核武器作為抵擋北約傳統武力入侵的籌碼。因此，任命戰略火箭部隊出身的謝爾蓋耶夫擔任國防部長，優先發展戰略火箭軍等政策。然此項政策排擠傳統武力的發展需要，使得車臣戰爭這場非對稱傳統戰爭中俄軍傷亡慘重。而普丁就任後除加速發展高科技武器、維持核武嚇阻能力外，亦加強傳統武力、快速反應部隊等一系列建設，藉以面對第六代戰爭。上述假設命題可引申出下列邏輯相關的子命題:
1.兩次車臣戰爭與俄羅斯軍事改革之因果關係
葉爾欽時期的軍事改革優先發展核武的政策嚴重扼殺傳統武力發展的空間，使得俄羅斯在面對車臣戰爭等區域衝突力有未逮。普丁總統繼任後，以務實態度平衡核武與傳統武力間的發展。
2.面對第六代戰爭的來臨，俄軍該如何因應
俄軍加速推動先進武器系統研發以應付第六代戰爭的同時，仍需提升傳統部隊的兵力及加強演練傳統作戰模式，不能完全捨棄傳統戰術思維，以應付雙方實力懸殊的反恐戰爭。
After Gulf War, Kosovu War, and U.S.-Iraq War, international military scholars believe that the rapid tempo of the war is due to advanced technology, such as C4ISR system, precision guided munitions, etc. Russian military speed up the tempo of military reform after suddenly realizing there is a gap of generations between Russian and American military. Military scholars have put forward the discourses of “Sixth Generation Warfare,” “Non-contact Warfare,” etc. In 1970s, Russian military take the lead to propose new military technology reform. However, arms race causes economy slowdown for almost thirty years, which is in the experience of the collapse of the Soviet Union and Chechen war. The aims of military reform are disarmament and military downsizing. After Putin inaugurated as Russian president, international energy price soars gradually and foreign exchange increase continually. Under this situation, Russian military not only keep disarming but also raise military spending in order to invest in conventional armed forces construction, reorganization, and Rapid reaction force (RRF) development. The present study is aimed at discussing the development of Russian military reform during the period of Yeltsin to Putin and the cause-effect between Chechen war and military reform.
The writer believes that under Yeltsin’s presidency, on the premise of NATO''s enlargement and Restoration of Russia, nuclear weapon is the only counter for Russian military to withstand NATO’s conventional armed forces invasion. Therefore, Yeltsin appointed Igor Sergeyev, owing to Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) origin, as defense minister and aimed at developing the policy of Strategic Missile Forces (SMF). However, this policy edged out the need of developing conventional armed forces and many Russian military were injured and killed in the Asymmetric Warfare - Chechen war. Since Putin has been inaugurated, he speeded up the development of high-tech weapons, maintained the deterrence of nuclear weapon, and strengthened conventional armed forces and rapid reaction force in order to face six-generation warfare.
Above hypothesis can be further developed into the following logically consequential sub-propositions:
1.The cause-effect between two Chechen wars and Russian military reforms
The policy of nuclear weapon development as the priority in Yeltsin period strangles the space of conventional armed forces development. Russian President Putin succeeds and uses pragmatic attitude to balance the development between conventional armed forces and nuclear weapon.
2.How Russian military should respond in the six-generation warfare?
Russian military speeds up the invention of advanced weapon system in order to respond in the six-generation warfare. In the meanwhile, they still have to raise the conventional armed forces and strengthen the traditional tactics. The traditional tactics cannot be completely abandoned in order to respond in the War on Terrorism which one army is much inferior to the other. |
