| 摘要: | 都市原以製造業為經濟基礎逐漸被服務業所取代，如企業營運總部、金融機構、零售商場、政府機構等…皆須藉由辦公室進行資訊蒐集與決策之用，而藉由辦公大樓供給數量之多寡和辦公大樓之租金水準則可做為觀察服務業總體表現的領先指標。辦公大樓與住宅雖然同屬於不動產，住宅多以買賣的方式進行，但辦公大樓主要的交易活動則為租賃。因此辦公大樓的租金，其背後所反應出的乃為該建築物的外觀、地點以及大樓本身的維護管理，乃至於總體經濟環境等因素邊際價格的總和。
隨著社會經濟結構的轉型，目前北京已邁向服務業為主的社會型態。為因應服務業及商業所需的辦公空間，因此陸續增加辦公大樓的興建。隨著近年來不動產的投資興盛，辦公大樓成為了外資或者保值的投資選擇。而判斷辦公大樓價值的標準即為該大樓所能創造的收益為何。辦公大樓的收益為租金，因此了解影響租金組成的因素，能夠提供我們在進行投資決策時一個參考的依據。但過去已有許多租金影響因素之研究，是以本研究擬從總體經濟的觀點切入來探討影響租金的因素。
本研究對北京辦公大樓市場的現況作了較為詳細地說明。內容涉及北京三大商務區的商圈特色及功能定位，市場的發展背景及未來的發展趨勢，以及市場租售價格水準、空置率情況。同時分析影響辦公大樓租金的總體經濟指標如新增供給量、空置率、價格、國內生產毛額、利率、貨幣供給量、股價指數、消費者物價指數、北京外資投入..等，透過迴歸分析法，分析總體經濟指標和北京辦公大樓市場租金之間的連動關係，藉以預測北京辦公大樓市場的變化。
In Beijing, business has become the main economic activity. The more prosperous business is, the more office spaces are requested. To understand the composition of office rent, regression model is used as an analysis tool frequently. The varieties, such as age, distance of MRT, or standard floor ,or new supply, the vacancy rate, price, gross domestic product, interest rates,, consumer price index, foreign investment in Beijing are usually used as the hedonic varieties.
In this paper studies the current state office buildings in Beijing from the aspects of demand and supply, price level, vacancy rate and space arrangement. Qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation methods are adopted during the process and problems found are addressed.
First, this paper describes in detail the present situation of the office building market in Beijing and points out challenges facing the market. These challenges are: The overall supply surpasses the overall demand , the structural problem is very serious,
homogeneous trend is very obvious and the future environment is not studied sufficiently.
Second, this paper, using regression method and linear trend projection of office building availability method projects the demand for office buildings in the period from the year 2003 to 2008. |
