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    Title: 珠三角地區臺商加工貿易業的全球生產佈局探討
    Other Titles: A study of global configuration for a processing trade to Taiwanese enterprises in Pearl river delta
    Authors: 沈志賢;Shen, Chih-hsien
    Contributors: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班
    陳建甫;Chen, Chien-fu
    Keywords: 珠三角地區;加工貿易業;層級分析法;鮭魚返鄉;Pearl River Delta;Improvement Trade Industry;Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP);relocation back to Taiwan
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:35:06 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 台商自80年代,因國內物價高漲、工資上升、加上對外匯率快速升值,對外大量出超引來貿易犘擦等不利因素,造成第一批大量的對外投資潮;這些投資多集中在珠三角附近,產業多為鞋業、傢俱、紡織、塑化及電子零件等產業為主。2007年加工貿易業出口額6,176.5億美元,佔所有對外貿易出口的50.7%、其出超額即達2492.5億美元,佔當年度中國大陸對外出超的95.1%;廣東省的加工貿易業出口額又佔了中國大陸所有加工貿易的38.6%,然而中國大陸加工貿易政策的改變,人民幣匯率的升值、貿易犘擦的增加、工資成本的上升、環保抗爭的增加,而有了巨大的改變;加上2008年第四季的全球金融海嘯的奇襲,珠三角地區的台商正面臨了與80年代的台灣極為相似的經營環境惡化。此時,越南、新柔廖、台灣及中國大陸內地省份,都提供了積極優惠的政策來招徠外資直接投資。到底他們在中長期的經營決策上,會如何做決擇呢?然而這批台商相當隱密,資料取得困難,這與華東地區以上市櫃公司或公開發行為主的研究相比較,有很大的不同;所以,本研究仍鎖定珠三角地區從事加工貿易業的台商,以直接問卷方式接觸,探討分析未來佈局的方向,期能提供政府施政、金融機構業務佈局的參考。本研究以層級分析法(AHP)法,先透過文獻探討中國大陸加工貿易業的發展、管理,分析其特徵、貢獻及面臨的變局,此為台商面對經營環境惡化的推力,接著探討各地積極招商的方案,這些方案可分類為轉進內地、鮭魚返鄉及南向設廠三類,此為外來的拉力。接著以專家進行問卷,以建立層級,歸納出七個評估準則及二十一個評估標準。再編製問卷調查營業規模大、小不同的台商及銀行顧問業三個族群,以深入探討珠三角加工貿易業台商下一波佈局的考慮因素。研究分析發現影響珠三角地區台商加工貿易業全球生產佈局—銀行顧問族群的評估準則的優先次序是:「成本因素(優勢向量 0.342)」、「勞力供給(優勢向量 0.229)」、「產業群聚效應(優勢向量 0.141)」、「市場與區位考量(優勢向量 0.104)」、「政府效能(優勢向量 0.075)」、「基礎設施(優勢向量 0.062)」及「社會環境(優勢向量 0.047)」。影響珠三角地區台商加工貿易業全球生產佈局—規模大族群的評估準則的優先次序是:「成本因素(優勢向量 0.285)」、「勞力供給(優勢向量 0.221)」、「產業群聚效應(優勢向量 0.173)」、「市場與區位考量(優勢向量 0.109)」、「政府效能(優勢向量 0.082)」、「基礎設施(優勢向量 0.070)」及「社會環境(優勢向量 0.059)」。影響珠三角地區台商加工貿易業全球生產佈局—規模小族群的評估準則的優先次序是:「勞力供給(優勢向量 0.312)」、「成本因素(優勢向量 0.245)」、「產業群聚效應(優勢向量 0.124)」、「政府效能(優勢向量 0.104)」、「市場與區位考量(優勢向量 0.084)」、「基礎設施(優勢向量 0.067)」及「社會環境(優勢向量 0.065)」。另分析影響珠三角地區台商加工貿易業全球生產佈局—銀行顧問族群的評估指標的前七項優先次序是:「整地成本、廠房與相關設施成本低廉(整層級權重0.141)」、「原物料取得容易,價格低廉(整層級權重 0.114)」、「上下游產業群聚(整層級權重 0.094)」、「勞工穩定就業、罷工事件少(整層級權重 0.090) 、「稅務行政及退稅率高(整層級權重 0.088)、「勞力成本低廉(整層級權重 0.090)、及「基層勞力供應充裕(整層級權重 0.058)。影響珠三角地區台商加工貿易業全球生產佈局—規模大族群的評估指標的前七項優先次序是:「上下游產業群聚 (整層級權重 0.116)」、「原物料取得容易,價格低廉(整層級權重 0.115)」、「整地成本、廠房與相關設施成本低廉(整層級權重 0.092)」、「勞工穩定就業、罷工事件少(整層級權重 0.085)、「稅務行政及退稅率高 (整層級權重 0.078)、「勞力成本低廉(整層級權重 0.075)及「基層勞力供應充裕(整層級權重 0.061)。影響珠三角地區台商加工貿易業全球生產佈局—規模小族群的評估指標的前七項優先次序是:「勞工穩定就業、罷工事件少(整層級權重 0.135)」、「原物料取得容易,價格低廉(整層級權重 0.109)」、「勞力成本低廉 (整層級權重 0.103)」、「基層勞力供應充裕(整層級權重 0.074)、「上下游產業群聚 (整層級權重 0.074)、「 (稅務行政及退稅率高整層級權重 0.071)及「整地成本、廠房與相關設施成本低廉(整層級權重 0.066)。研究結論發現:台商佈局選項為轉進內地>南向設廠>鮭魚返鄉,約有七成以上的台商優先選擇轉進內地,二成會南向設廠,不到一成台商才會鮭魚返鄉;台商的移動佈局,已開始從珠三角往廣東二線城市及江西省移動;南向設廠多考慮到越南設廠,但越南因罷工事件多、基礎設施不佳、海陸交通運輸不完備而逐漸冷卻中;部份規模較小的台商在第二選擇時,才會考慮鮭魚返鄉。
    Since 1980’s, Taiwanese businessmen have been adversely affected by the consequences of the impact of inflation, the increasing of wage, rapid appreciation, the raging amount of export excess, leading to a new trend of foreign investments. These investments are concentrated in Pearl River Delta focusing on industries of shoes, furniture, textile, plastics, and electronics. The export figures for Improvement Trade Industries are USD 617.65 billion in 2007, sharing 50.7% of total export figures in China. The export excess for Improvement Trade Industries are USD 249.25 billion, sharing 95.1% of total export excess in China. The export figures of the Improvement Trade Industries in Kuang Dong Province occupy 38.6% of total figures of the Improvement Trade Industries in China. However, the circumstances had been changed due to the change of China policy on Improvement Trade Industries, the appreciation of Renminbi, the trading conflicts, and the raging of global green revolution. In addition, the global financial crisis in the 4th quarter of 2008 causes Taiwanese businessmen investing in Pearl River Delta facing a downturn business environment as Taiwanese businessmen faced in 1980’s.
    At this time, Vietnam, Shin Zo Liao, Taiwan, and inland China provinces aggressively provide favorable policies to attract foreign direct investment. How do those businessmen make long-term strategic decisions? However, it is difficult to obtain information from Taiwanese businessmen due to their secured privacy. This research is very different from the research regarding to the listed companies in eastern part of China. Therefore, in this research, we still put our focus on Taiwanese businessmen of Improvement Trade Industries in Pearl River Delta, through direct survey, in order to further explore and analyze future plans, as the reference for the enhancement of government policy and financial institutions.
    This research, based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP), is through the analysis of the documentation and interviews to establish the hierarchy; then, we compile another survey, focusing on three specific groups: groups of Taiwanese corporations in small/big size, and groups of banking consultant. In this way, we can construct further analysis on possible factors impacting the next business plans of Taiwanese businessmen of Improvement Trade Industries in Pearl River Delta.
    According to the research, the choices of the business plan for Taiwan businessmen are: relocation to inland region of China, relocation to southern Asia, and relocation back to Taiwan. Approximately 70% of Taiwanese businessmen prefer relocation to inland region of China. Approximately 20% of Taiwanese businessmen prefer relocation to southern Asia while less than 10% of Taiwanese businessmen prefer relocation back to Taiwan. The relocation to inland region of China begins from Pearl River Delta to 2nd tier cities in Kuang Dong and Jiang Xi Province. The relocation to southern Asia is concentrated in Vietnam. However the trend is fading because of strikes, unfavorable infrastructures, and immature marine and land transportations. Some Taiwanese corporations in small size regard relocation back to Taiwan as their 2nd Choice.
    Appears in Collections:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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