| Abstract: | 冷戰結束後，中共因蘇聯解體導致其走向改革開放政策。由以往強調軍事為主的傳統安全，逐漸轉而關注新興的非傳統安全威脅上。「互信、互利、平等、協作」是中共新安全觀的基本內容，主張將安全的認知從傳統的軍事領域，擴展至政治、經濟、社會、文化等非傳統安全領域。在實踐安全的途徑上，主張協作之安全、以信任取代猜疑，以對話取代對抗，冀在共同利益的基礎上透過經濟、政治、軍事對話等方式下，謀求共同安全。
中共正由計畫經濟朝向其所謂的社會主義市場經濟轉型，對於在2050年達到中等發達國家水平的目標而言，現階段的發展將是一個重要的轉折。中共的經濟發展計畫，預約對於石油的消費，其油源消費結構與供應來源的單一性等，對其油源安全而言，為潛在的負面因素。尤須以增加石油進口，已成為解決中共油源安全矛盾的必要路徑時，對外的油源政策，將確保油源安全是否穩定的關鍵要素。
中共的油源安全戰略圍繞在以油源的來源、獲得方式，以及運輸等多元化為中心時；對內，透過多面向管道強化本身的油源安全鏈，避免過度依賴進口。對外，藉由其領導階層積極的出訪，以外交手段推展「油源外交」，採全球化多面向戰略佈局，以開啟中共油源外交的新趨向。
中共為確保其經濟發展和油源運輸安全，以及突破「麻六甲海峽」困境，咸認除透過「上海合作組織」拓展中亞油源外，更應「珍珠鏈」戰略布勢，面對印度洋、太平洋才能真正達到長期突破海運之戰略目的。因此21世纪的中共大戰略必須依托中亞大陸，面向兩洋，以尋求突破麻六甲海峽之困境，印度洋戰略因素的發展及其互動，將牽動中共未來國家經濟安全穩定之要素。
After the end of Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union caused China to adopt the reform and open-door policy. China gradually shifted their focus from traditional military-first security to non-traditional security threat. China’s new security concept is based on mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and cooperation. China advocates extending the security cognition from traditional military field to non-traditional security fields including political, economic, social and cultural. In the measures to implement security, China advocates a safe cooperation, taking trust instead of doubt, dialogue instead of confrontation, hopes to maintain common security on the basis of mutual benefit through dialogues in the economic, political, military, and other fields.
China is in a transition period from a planned economy to a socialist market economy, the current development will be a very important turning point for the goal of reaching the level of medium-developed country in 2050. China’s economic development plan has estimated oil consumption. The oil consumption structure and simple sources of supply are potential negative factors on the security of oil supply. The foreign policy on oil supply will be a key element to ensure a stable security of oil supply especially while increase of oil import becomes an essential measure to solve China’s oil supply security dilemma.
China’s strategy of oil supply security focuses on the diversification of supplies sources, obtainment, and transportation. In domestic, China strengthen its safe supply chain of oil by multidirectional channels, and decrease the dependence on oil import; besides, China pushes “oil diplomacy” by Chinese leaders’ active visits abroad with diplomacy, adopts strategy of globalization and diversification to create new tendency of China’s oil diplomacy.
In order to ensure economic development and oil transportation security, break the Malacca dilemma; China think they should exploit oil resource in Central Asia with the assistance of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, moreover, should adopt the string of pearls strategy to really reach the goal of breaking through blockades of sea transportation in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean for long. Therefore, China’s grand strategy in the 21th century must rely on Central Asia and confront two Oceans trying to solve the Malacca Dilemma. The development and interaction of strategic factors for Indian Ocean strategy will influence the elements of China’s future national economic security and stability. |
