中共「十七大」新人事佈局下對臺政策之研究

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Title:	中共「十七大」新人事佈局下對臺政策之研究
Other Titles:	The study of China's Taiwan policy from the 17th CPC national congress's new personnel arrangement
Authors:	李俊良;Li, Chun-liang
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班潘錫堂;Pan, His-tang
Keywords:	中共;十七大;兩岸關係;菁英甄補;對臺政策;CPC;17th National Party Congress;cross-strait relation;Elite Recruitment;The policy to Taiwan
Date:	2008
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:32:35 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本論文首先以2002年11月至2007年10月中共「十六大」期間為起點，回顧江澤民與胡錦濤間派系消長與對臺政策的延續與變遷。其次探討2007年10月「十七大」至2008年3月「十一屆人大一次會」，中共中央人事佈局及其對臺政策的發展與影響。最後總結研究成果，並據此討論臺灣所面臨挑戰與未來可能因應之道。從近年以來中共人事與對臺政策的發展，可以看出許多不同以往之處。在人事方面，從江澤民到胡錦濤，再由胡錦濤到習近平、李克強，使權力移轉制度逐漸穩固。同時更年輕、更高學歷、更多元學科背景的新一代政治人物躍升領導階層，為中共決策核心注入新的力量。在對臺政策方面，中共更能夠瞭解臺灣人民好惡，並更能善用國際力量影響兩岸問題。對臺灣選舉激情冷處理與此次國際同聲反對「入聯公投」就是很好的例子。在中國迅速崛起的現實下，尋求臺灣發展空間與兩岸和平雙贏，遠比與之對抗來得務實。因此，本研究建議臺灣當局在維護主權與國家安全的前提下，以「九二共識」為基礎，持續與中共進行協商談判，並善意予以回應，同時積極尋找臺灣在國際社會中的新定位。 This thesis first recall the factions problem between Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, and the changing polices towards to Taiwan of the 16th Party “Congress"(November 2002 to October 2007). Secondly, we analyze the personnel arrangement of central committee of CPC and the development of their policies to Taiwan, which from "17th Party Congress" to the 11th National People''s Congress (October 2007 to March 2008). Finally, we state the conclusion of the study and pose possible strategies to Taiwan for facing the challenge of cross-strait relationship in the future.Recently, there are many different from CPC personnel arrangement and the development of the policies to Taiwan. In the personnel arrangement dimension, the power rotation plan become more and more stable from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao and from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang. On the other hand, more younger, high diploma and multiple scholar background leaders are brought to the CPC''s decision-making core. At the policy to Taiwan, CPC now understand likes and dislikes of Taiwanese and usually apply the international force to influence cross-strait relations. Not involved to reject ” referendum on joining UN in the name of Taiwan” are the best case.It is more pragmatic for Taiwan to seek development space and “win-win” relationship in peace while facing the fact of “the rise of China”. In order to maintain sovereignty should carry on the consultative negotiations and seek new position in the international social base on the“1992 consensus”.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of China Studies] Thesis

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