從反分裂國家法探研中共對臺法律戰

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Title:	從反分裂國家法探研中共對臺法律戰
Other Titles:	A probe into China's law war against Taiwan based on anti-secession law
Authors:	許清池;Shiu, Ching-chr
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班潘錫堂;Pan, His-tang
Keywords:	戰爭;法律戰;國際法;武裝衝突法;war;legal warfare;lnternational law;Law of armed conflict
Date:	2008
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:32:02 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	自有人類以來，「戰爭」就一直伴隨著人類歷史不斷發生，台海兩岸目前雖處交流互動頻繁，但因政治因素及意識型態仍存有諸多不穩定變數。雙方軍事平衡力若發生改變，將衝擊東北亞甚至亞太地區的安全，一旦台海發生軍事衝突，，美軍或其它國家是否會派兵或以政治力介入，都是研究兩岸關係所關注的焦點。中共自1991年起，便派專人研究第一次美伊波灣戰爭、科索沃戰爭及第二次美伊波灣戰爭，尤其是2003年第二次美伊戰爭中，美軍自發動戰爭前，即實施法律戰、輿論戰與心理戰等作戰模式，此一模式啟發了共軍實施「三戰」的新戰略思維及打贏高科技信息化局部戰爭的準備；共軍認為在未來軍事鬥爭中，法律戰可以發揮維護自身、打擊對方的作戰功能。因此，2003年12月共軍修頒「政治工作條例」時，就明確提出法律戰概念，並列為領導戰時政治工作內容之一。 2005年3月14日中共十屆全國人民代表大會第3次會議表決通過「反分裂國家法」，當時各國都擔心是否會片面改變台海兩岸的現狀？未來會因台灣誤踩紅線，造成嚴重軍事衝突，而危及亞太地區安全。中共制定「反分裂國家法」對台實施法律戰，主要是因應兩岸情勢變化，藉此嚇阻「台獨」勢力，及為防範美國可能因「台灣關係法」或以「美日安保條約」周邊有事，介入干涉其內政。另又透過「寄希望於台灣人民」的「惠台」政策，對我實施軟硬兼施的兩手策略。中共攻台三階段時間表可分為2007年完成全面應急作戰能力準備，2010年完成對台大規模作戰能力準備，2015年完成對台決戰能力準備。以大衛‧伊斯頓（David Easton）的政治理論來看，在輸入項和輸出項過程中，從眾多蒐集的資料中，可瞭解中共對台實施法律戰的立法經過和共軍準備現況，據以掌握其動向與研究出因應對策。全篇研究共分為六個章節，首章為緒論；第二章以歷史研究途徑從第二次美伊戰爭探討對中共啟發及對台實施「法律戰」的緣起、意涵與目的；第三章以個案研究法探研中共對台法律戰具體作法及立法制定反分裂國家法的經過；第四章從軍事武裝衝突研究途徑綜整針對中共對台實施法律戰之影響；第五章從國際法分析，反駁中共法理謬論；藉強化友我同盟關係、加強全民國防及建立軍事嚇阻防衛力量，作為反制中共對台實施法律戰的因應之道。經過上述五章的探討，可以看出中共對台策略是以「軟殺」拉攏人民，藉模糊敵我意識，俾利逐步完成「硬殺」的作戰準備，本文結論係根據前五章分析作為基礎，歸納出研究發現和後續研究方向，並從兩岸軍事對峙中，尋求雙方都能接受的互信機制，避免因挑釁、誤判而引發戰火，以達和平共處之道。 War has been constantly occurring throughout human history. Despite frequent unofficial exchanges between China and Taiwan, numerous uncertainties remain due to political and ideological differences. The security situation in northeast Asia and even Asia-Pacific region can be compromised if the military balance continues to shift in China’s favor. It is surely a concerned topic for cross-strait affairs observers to discuss whether or not the US or other countries would intervene either politically or militarily if the conflicts break out across the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese military had sent observers to study how the western allies conducted the Kosovo conflict and two Iraqi wars. The observers learned that the US began warfare in law, opinion, and psychology before they launched the second Iraqi war in 2003, which inspires China to make preparations for its future security strategies and regional high-tech and digital wars. The Chinese military believed that law war provides a legitimate excuse to attack their enemy. Therefore, the concept of “law war” was introduced into the “Political Work Regulation” in December 2003, which is the guiding legal provision for political work during wartime. In March 2005, the National People’s Congress passed the “Anti-secession Law.” Many countries began to worry that this law might unilaterally change the status of the cross-strait relations, because Taiwan might violate this law by pushing for independence and trigger serious military conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. The passage of this law is aimed to deterring Taiwan to become independent and giving a lawful excuse to block the US and Japan from intervening using Taiwan Relation Act and US-Japan Security Pact as legal basis. At the same time, China plays a soft tactic by giving Taiwan many favors as part of its ''carrot and stick'' strategy. China will complete the preparations for establishing “contingency-response combat capabilities” before 2007, building up its “combat capabilities for large-scale military engagement” before 2010, and ensuring “victory in a decisive battle” before 2015. The author tries to reveal China’s true intentions, future moves and formulate Taiwan’s countermeasures by analyzing China’s law-making process of the “Anti-secession Law” and their military preparation. There are six chapters in this thesis. Chapter one is the introduction. Chapter two discusses the origin, significance and purpose of China’s anti-secession law against Taiwan based on the second Iraqi war experience. Chapter three states the law making process and analyzes how China will possibly utilize the law to suppress Taiwan. Chapter four probes into the effect of the law from the viewpoint of armed conflict approach. Chapter five rebuts China’s legal theory from an international law viewpoint, and suggests Taiwan counter Beijing’s law war by strengthening its ties with its allies and building up military deterrent power. After the analysis of the five chapters, readers should be able to understand that China intends to win over Taiwanese people through their “soft” tactic, and prepare to carry out the hard tactic with military readiness. The thesis also bases on the analysis of the chapter 1 to 5 to induce conclusions and give a direction for follow-on research. It is hoped that a mutually trusted mechanism can be established by both sides to avoid accidental military conflict, and will help to reach peace in the future.
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