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    Title: 人民幣升值壓力的原因及因應對策之研究
    Other Titles: The reasons of and solution to RMB's appreciation pressures
    Authors: 陳怡安;Chen, Yi-an
    Contributors: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班
    郭建中;Guo, Jiann-jong
    Keywords: 人民幣;匯率;RMB;exchange rate
    Date: 2006
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:31:59 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 近年來,人民幣升值壓力問題一直是中國內外有關人士爭論的焦點。人民幣匯率所面臨的壓力主要指來自外部的政治性升值壓力,但是實際上人民幣匯率的升值壓力可以分為三種壓力。第一,外匯市場上的市場升值壓力。第二,外國政府要求人民幣升值的壓力,可以稱為外部政治性升值壓力。第三,內部政策性升值壓力。
    對中國國內市場的分析,通過領導者-追隨者模型中的均衡市場價格及對產量討論各變量對匯率的影響。再提出從國內市場擴展到國際市場,建立古諾納什均衡模型闡述人民幣匯率的影響因素。最後討論實際匯率的真正意義:可貿易品與非貿易品價格之比,探討理論上人民幣升值壓力的真正原因。
    討論人民幣升值壓力的歷史進程,進而導出2004以後人民幣升值壓力的高峰以及2005年7月中國政府宣布人民幣兌美元匯率調整為8:11元,升值2﹪,其中了解中國調整匯率形成機制,由釘住單一美元改為參考一籃子貨幣,以市場供求為基礎,實施有管理的浮動匯率制度的過程。
    整理與討論人民幣升值實務上的內在因素及外在因素。關於內在因素,在中國外匯市場上外匯嚴重供過於求的局面,客觀要求人民幣幣值上升,2005年7月前對外匯市場實行人為的直接干預使人民幣兌美元匯率一直保持不變,因此產生升值壓力的問題,討論導致中國外匯市場外匯供過於求的因素以及其他造成人民幣升值的內在因素。外在壓力因素主要是美國.日本.歐盟等國要求人民幣升值的建議和呼籲,本研究會詳細分析這些國家的真正目的與要求人民幣升值的原因。
    整理過去曾經採取緩解人民幣升值壓力的措施,例如:放寬結售匯制度.降低出口退稅率,討論現在採取的緩解人民幣升值壓力措施:釘住一籃子的貨幣制度,最後討論未來可以採取的緩解人民幣升值壓力措施:平衡居民的外匯資產與人民幣資產的預期收益.擴大企業對外匯資產的需求與中國企業”走出去”.QFII.可能的QDII和人民幣資本帳戶下部份可自由兌換等。
    In recent years, China the economy develops quickly, also accumulating in great quantities outside business to invest and trade export surplus directly, at the foreign exchange reserves accumulates significantly, the currency supplies also keep on increasing of in the meantime, but the commodity price is very stable.
    The trade deficit, international investment deficit and finance in the red of the United States, turns phenomenon along with the foam of science and technology industry and more serious, but China owns a great deal of trade surplus, FDI and foreign exchange reserves, RMB has strong appreciation pressure of important reason.In addition, plentiful cheap labor in mainland, plus an international funds, technique of recent years of a great deal of flow into, produce a great deal of low price merchandise, even cause scathing competition threat to the international community.Various reason cause RMB face serious appreciation pressure currently.
    China faces the heavy RMB appreciation pressure, anticipating generally, RMB is final and still will revalue.But the mode of the appreciation with"adjust gradually" compare is possible, rather than"a time adjusts foot".Add to float the means that the frequency conduct and actions adjusts, but impossible time adjustment go to.
    China authorities tries to adopt to turn down to export rebate, publish the short-term stock write-off currency, loosens the bank and enterprise to hold more foreign exchanges, allows all branches of overseas-funded enterprises to establish foreign exchange to unify receipt and expenditure to adjust one degree center and allows an enterprise to leave for an outside investment, is go to promote QDII etc. measure, ease the pressure of RMB appreciation.
    Appears in Collections:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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