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    Title: 中共中亞戰略走向研究
    Other Titles: The Chinese communist party central asia strategy moves towards the research
    Authors: 劉東旭;Liu, Tung-shu
    Contributors: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班
    趙春山;Chao, Chun-shan
    Keywords: 九一一事件;中亞;能源;輸油通路;Central Asia;Energy;911;Oil Transportation
    Date: 2008
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:30:57 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 九一一事件的發生,美國駐軍阿富汗,掌控中亞局勢,導致中共傳統的中亞戰略布局受到嚴重的挑戰,甚至有被美國「東西合圍」的危機。此外,美、俄在中亞的爭奪,也連帶地壓縮了中共在西部的戰略空間。中共的回應是:一方面把握機會大體改善和美關係,特別是反恐怖主義上積極與美國合作,以謀求中亞地區的穩定,並藉機整肅「疆獨」;另一方面,則採取與美國抗衡的方式,透過大國外交與多邊外交,強化與俄羅斯的戰略協作以及和中亞諸國的關係,冀望在中亞地區繼續加強合作,聯合反美。不過,無論如何,在大戰略上中共仍必須韜光養晦,力求在和平穩定的國際環境下,全力發展經濟。
    在能源開發領域,中國大陸無論是經濟實力還是消費能力都難以與西方國家匹敵。反觀中國大陸,在1997年6月與9月兩度以優惠的條件,擊敗歐美的大型石油業者,取得哈薩克兩大油田的開採權,展現爭奪中亞能源市場的雄心,並引起美國相當的震撼。更重要的是,中國大陸藉由鋪設哈薩克到中國大陸的輸油管道,與中亞地區的石油輸送管道網絡接軌,建立一個通向中東和裹海地區石油的陸上輸送線路,使中國大陸處於「泛亞全球能源橋樑」的樞紐位置,把現有的和將來的石油供應國(中東、中亞、俄羅斯)和亞洲的主要石油消費國(中國大陸、日本、韓國)聯接起來。此舉不僅有期待透過中哈大油管的興建,提振新疆維吾爾族的經濟利益的構想,同時亦有減消疆獨壓力的附帶盤算。
    當前中亞地區無論在政治、經濟及社會等方面,存有錯縱複雜的問題,包括政爭迭起;週邊地區武裝衝突不斷,水資源與耕地日漸減少;跨國犯罪問題嚴重,毒品與軍備交易泛濫等等,但是上述不穩定因素,並不影響全球各種勢力:官方或非官方;集團或個人齊對「中亞熱」的參與與嚮往。因為中亞所蘊藏的能源、原料及民生消費市場,乃是當前全球唯一尚未開發的處女地。由此顯示在21 世紀地緣政治運轉中,中亞扮演了不容忽視的角色地位。
    以當前的格局來看,在美國優勢力量的主導下,中共仍將尋求與那些抗美的力量之間的聯合與集結,但其可能性與有效性,不宜高估。至於中共是否不改其戰略大方針,抑或是驟然改變其既定的立場與戰略想定?這是一個很值得進一步深思而細密觀察的課題。
    Central Asia contains plentiful sources of energy and is the only place where the energy has not been developed yet in the whole word. The reason causes major powers prolonging their influence to control Central Asia countries. After 911, the USA makes excuses of anti-terrorism to send troops into Afghanistan which challenging the deployment of China’s strategy towards Central Asia. Under the circumstance, China has adopted some methods to deal with the threaten of USA, they are as follows :
    1、China develops cooperative relation with the USA by using the issue of combating terrorism. It is helpful that the direct conflict of both countries in Central Asia’s interest could be avoided.
    2、China uses the method of multilateral diplomacy which includes cooperation and exchange in culture, technical and educational field to enhance relationship with Russia and Central Asia countries.
    3、China signed an agreement with Kazakhstan to build an oil pipe which is going to connect with Central Asia’s oil transportation network. And this will bring China to be an irreplaceable strategic position in “Pan-Asia global energy bridge”.
    Not only China has adopted diversiform ways to maintain and strive for the benefit in Central Asia, but also the major power such as USA and Russia does too. The future tendency of Central Asia still needs longtime observation.
    Appears in Collections:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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