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    題名: 「和平崛起論」暨中國崛起政治經濟意涵
    其他題名: China's "peaceful rise"and its political and economic implications
    和平崛起論暨中國崛起政治經濟意涵
    作者: 張冠傑;Chang, Kuan-chieh
    貢獻者: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班
    蘇起;Su, Chi
    關鍵詞: 和平崛起論;中國崛起;中國威脅論;中國戰略;中國政治;中國經濟;China Rise;Peaceful Rise;China Strategy;China Politics;China Economy
    日期: 2005
    上傳時間: 2010-01-10 23:29:15 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 兩岸關係政冷經熱,中國藉由日益上昇的國際影響力不斷干擾我國在國際上的活動空間,從政治到經濟、社會、文化領域,都可以發現中國與台灣在國際場合上彼此競爭的緊張局面,而台灣經常屈居於弱勢的不利位置,其主要原因與中國國力崛起的現況有著絕對的關聯性。
    台灣在全球化時代要如何因應中國崛起的現實狀況是目前我國應該要嚴肅面對的課題。故本論文欲研究全球化時代下,我國應該如何在中國崛起並且刻意在國際舞台邊緣化台灣的逆境下,洞悉中國國力的虛實,避實擊虛。
    本論文的研究途徑以現實主義為核心的國際體系理論作為運用相關資料的參考標準。本文的研究架構是先探討「中國崛起」的概念及發展過程,接續分析外界對中國崛起的反應,包括對「中國威脅論」的輿論反應及中國的「和平崛起論」戰略,接續分析中國經濟崛起的現況,以及中國國際地位在國際政治中崛起的現況,最後在結論中將「和平崛起論」與中國崛起的現實作為做一個比較分析得出結論。
    本論文研究的時間範圍,除了1979年至2001年的背景敘述外,中國國際政治外交崛起的分析內容主要設定從2002年11月中共十六大召開後,至目前2005年為止。中國經濟崛起的分析內容主要設定從2001年11月中國以「開發中國家」的身份加入世界貿易組織開始,至目前2005年為止。

    中國「和平崛起」論述是中國的新大戰略,此戰略的目標是達成「不戰而主東亞」。中國計劃運用經濟國力來加深對亞洲鄰國的影響力,孤立台灣以謀求吸收台灣。用經濟國力輔以文化國力來抵銷美國在西太平洋的影響力,並且中國企圖在未來的東亞地區扮演更具有領導決策權力的強國。
    北京一向堅持所謂的「具有中國特色的社會主義」。儘管近年來在經濟上獲得顯著成功,但中共領導人應認知到任何有組織的社會都會面臨到合法性的危機,這樣的認知是邁向政治多元主義的第一步。中國在未來成功轉型為市場經濟之後,中國共產黨將不再永遠是惟一的選擇。維繫經濟成長已經成為延續中共一黨專政的關鍵問題,市場經濟管理的錯誤可能帶來政治上的強烈動盪,權力與責任的下放將受到現實所迫而加速進行。經濟私有化與合理化會促使中共不得已弱化其在許多決策過程中的寡頭權力。中國政府如果不願意在政治上對世界自由民主潮流開放,將不可能達到其在二十一世紀「中國和平崛起」的戰略規劃。
    中共領導階層想以和平崛起論來消弭中國威脅論,近年來陸續以斡旋區域爭端的姿態活躍於國際舞台,此舉有利於執政者發展國內經濟與解決國內問題,對中國整體國力增強頗有助益。中共將「祖國統一」訂為本世紀三大任務之一(另外兩項為現代化建設、世界和平共同發展)。未來中共對台政策著重在「反獨」,將持續塑造國際反台獨氛圍,繞道華府牽制台北。並且強化「三通」攻勢,以民間力量拉近我國在政治上日漸增加之疏離感。是故台灣面對中國大戰略的步步進逼,來自國內外的壓力將會持續增加,期待朝野官民不分黨派捐棄成見,共商對策。
    The Cross-Strait relations are tense politically but close in the economic aspect. With its increasing international influence, China denies Taiwan any room in international community. The competition between the two sides is easy to detect in political, economic, social and cultural affairs. Taiwan, however, is often in a less favorable situation, which is closely related to the rise of China.

    How Taiwan should deal with the rise of China in the era of globalization is a significant issue for Taiwan. This paper discusses how Taiwan, being politically marginalized in international community by the rising China, can attain a better understanding of China’s expanding power and take advantage of the situation.

    I conduct my research on the basis of the Theory of International System from a political realistic perspective. This paper starts with the exploration of the concept of “the Rise of China” and its development. Then I analyze the outer world’s response to the rise of China, including its reaction to “the theory of the threat from China.” What follows is my analysis of China’s “Theory of Peaceful Rise.” Later I explore China’s economic and political growth. Finally I draw the conclusion from a comparison of the acclaimed “the theory of peaceful rise” and the reality.




    There are specific time frames for the discussion on different issues. The historical review spans from 1979 to 2001. The analysis of China’s political and diplomatic prosperity ranges from November, 2000, right after the 16th congress of Chinese Communist Party, to the present (2005). The critique of China’s booming economy begins with China’s entering WTO as a developing country in November, 2001, and ends in 2005.

    The “theory of peaceful rise” is China’s new international strategy, which aims at controlling East Asia by peace. Using its economic power, China plans to enhance its influence over the neighboring Asian countries, so as to isolate Taiwan and eventually make it surrender. Besides, China intends to counteract the influence of the United States in West Pacific with its economic as well as cultural power and thus take a leading role in East Asia in the future.

    Beijing has insisted on “Socialism with Chinese characteristics.” However, despite the fact that the Communist Party of China has led the nation to recent economic success, the party leaders must realize that there is a crisis of legitimacy in every organized society. This realization is the first step toward political diversity. After China transforms into market economy, the Communist Party of China will no longer be “the only (political) choice.” The continuity of the communist dictatorship will depend on the maintenance of economic growth. Mistakes in economic policies may result in political turbulence, and therefore the economic problems will accelerate the process for the party to give up its political power and responsibility. Privatization and rationalization in economy will diminish the communist party’s dictatorship in decision-making. The party will not be able to fulfill the purpose of the strategic “peaceful rise” in the twentieth century if it resists the global trend toward democracy.

    The communist leaders intend to replace “the theory of the threat from China” with “the theory of peaceful rise.” China has been handling regional disputes in East Asia with an attempt to establish its leadership, which will benefit its domestic economic development and solve internal conflicts. It will contribute to the national power of China. China has made Chinese Unification one of the three goals in the twenty-first century (the other two are economic modernization/construction and peaceful global development). China will possibly prioritize opposing Taiwan Independence in its Taiwan policies with two strategies: first, China will continue to build an unfriendly environment for Taiwan Independence by resorting to Washington’s influence over Taipei; second, China will employ the Three Links strategy and reinforce the unofficial relationship across the straits in order to prevent Taiwan from gaining independence. Consequently, Taiwan will feel the increasing stress from domestic sphere as well as international community, as a result of China’s pressure. Therefore, it is desired that the Taiwan government and people will figure out a solution despite their partisanship.
    顯示於類別:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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