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    Title: 影響台灣民眾統獨認知與統獨主張之研究
    Other Titles: The cognition and opinion of the unification-independence in Taiwan
    Authors: 翁常豪;Weng, Chang-hao
    Contributors: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班
    陳建甫;Chen, Chien-fu
    Keywords: 省籍;媒體;政經滿意度;統獨認知;統獨主張;Ethnic;media use;politics-economics satisfaction;unification-independence cognition;unification-independence opinion
    Date: 2005
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:29:13 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 統獨議題的重要性,表現在個體政治行為的不同態度,進而影響總體民主的政治發展;因為這個議題緊密的結合省籍族群,因此討論統獨問題時不能不涉及省籍問題。本研究以台灣選舉與民主化調查 2003年的資料來分析本省客家、本省閩南與外省族群對統獨認知和統獨主張的情形,同時也檢驗族群間在統獨認知與統獨主張上是否有所差異,並根據文獻的探討,設定媒體使用頻率、經濟滿意度與政府領導滿意度為自變項來看這些自變項對統獨認知與統獨主張的關係。
    因此,本研究利用結構方程式來進行潛在變項的測量,並利用SPSS 10.0與AMOS 5.0等統計軟體來看統獨認知與統獨主張之潛在變項受到自變項影響的情形,同時也進行省籍對統獨認知與統獨主張指標變項的卡方與變異數分析。
    研究發現不同省籍的臺灣民眾,在統獨認知與統獨主張上確實存在著差異性;在認知台灣是獨立的情形下,本省閩南籍與客家籍明顯的高過於外省籍。在主張兩岸是統一的狀況下,外省族群明顯的高過於其他族群,而在主張台灣是獨立的情況下,本省客家與閩南籍高過於外省族群,再經過變異數分析後發現,省籍在統獨之間確實有不同的差異性存在。假如將本省客家與本省閩南都歸為本省籍來看,本省籍族群較傾向於台灣獨立,而外省籍族群則較傾向於兩岸統一。
    其次,研究結果顯示「統獨認知」與「統獨主張」間有相互影響的關係;另外在自變項對統獨認知的研究結果顯示,媒體使用頻率與政府領導滿意度對統獨認知呈現顯著的影響關係;當媒體使用愈頻繁或政府領導愈滿意時,愈傾向台灣獨立;而在自變項對統獨主張的研究結果顯示,所有自變項對全部族群的統獨主張,皆產生顯著的影響關係;當媒體使用、政經滿意度呈現正向成長時,民眾愈傾向台灣獨立,然而年齡與教育程度則呈現負相關,也就是說當民眾的年齡或教育程度愈高時則愈傾向兩岸統一。
    最後在全部族群與台灣三大族群對「統獨認知」和「統獨主張」的分析中顯示,在不分省籍的模式中,當媒體與政府領導滿意度呈現正向影響時,民眾在認知上愈傾向台灣獨立;而在統獨主張上當年齡與教育程度愈低時,愈傾向獨立,而經濟滿意度愈高時,民眾在統獨主張上也愈傾向獨立。另外在本省客家籍的模式中,當政府領導與教育程度愈高時,其統獨認知愈傾向獨立;而在統獨主張上當媒體與教育程度愈高時,其統獨主張則傾向統一。其次在本省閩南籍的部份,當所有自變項呈現成長時,其愈傾向獨立;而在本省閩南籍的統獨主張上,當經濟滿意度成長時,其對統獨主張也就傾向獨立,而在年齡與教育程度上則是相反,也就是說當年齡愈大或教育程度愈高時,愈傾向統一。最後在外省籍的部份,經濟滿意度愈高時對其統獨認知愈傾向獨立,而在在年齡上則呈現年齡愈高其認知愈傾向統一;而在統獨主張上,當外省籍民眾的教育程度愈高則愈傾向統一。
    The importance of the issue regarding Taiwan’s independence vs. unification with the mainland is reflected by the different attitudes of individuals’ political behaviors. This in turn has a further influence on the political development of overall democracy. Due to the close relationship between the present issue of Taiwan’s independence vs. unification with the mainland and Taiwan’s different cohorts with different Ethnic groups, any discussion of this issue must take the Ethnic groups into consideration. This study uses the data of Taiwan’ s Election and Democratization study in 2003 to analyze the concepts and opinions of local Hakka, local Taiwanese, and people from other parts of the mainland on the issue of unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion. It also checks whether different cohorts have differences on unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion. The discussion of these documents, the media usage frequency, the Politics-Economics satisfaction is set as self variables to see their relationships with unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion.

    This study utilizes Structural Equation Modeling to measure Latent variables and employs statistical software such as SPSS 10.0 and AMOS 5.0 to monitor how the Latent variables of unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion are affected by self variables. Meanwhile, it also conducts a Chi-Square analysis as well as a One-way Anova analysis on ethnic groups vs. indicator of unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion.

    It is found in this study that Taiwan people of different Ethnic groups really have different unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion; in the questions of recognizing that Taiwan is independent, the percentage of Taiwanese and local Hakka is higher than the other Ethnic. In the question of recognizing that Taiwan and mainland should be unified, the percentage of the other Ethnic groups is higher than Taiwanese and local Hakka. In advocating that Taiwan is independent, the percentage of Taiwanese and local Hakka is higher than the other Ethnic groups. After analyzing the variations, there are real differences in the issue of unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion in different Ethnic groups. If we include Taiwanese and Hakka into the local Ethnic groups, we can see that local Ethnic groups are inclined to Taiwan’s independence, while other Ethnic groups are inclined to the unification of Taiwan with the mainland.

    Secondly, the study result shows that there is inter-influence between unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion. In addition, from the result of the study using the self variations, we can see that the media usage frequency and the satisfaction degree of the governmental leaders have a marked influence on the unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion. The more use by the media and the more satisfaction shown by the governmental leaders, the more tendencies towards independence there will be. From the result of the study using the self variations, we can see that all variations have a marked influence on all Ethnic groups’ unification-independence opinion. There is a positive correlation between people''s support of Taiwan’s independence and the growth of the media usage frequency and the satisfaction degree of the governmental leaders. But there is a negative relationship between people''s support of Taiwan’s independence and people’s age and education level, i.e., the older or the more educated people are, the more tendencies towards unification there will be.

    The following conclusion can be drawn from the analysis of the unification-independence cognition and unification-independence opinion from all cohorts and the three local cohorts. First, when not differentiating the Ethnic groups, considering the factors when the media and satisfaction degree of the governmental leaders have a positive influence, people are more inclined to support Taiwan’s independence. The study also shows that for this question; the younger and the more educated people are, the more tendency towards independence they will have. When there is a higher satisfaction degree with the economy, there is a greater tendency towards supporting Taiwan’s independence. Secondly, when considering the local Hakka ethnic group, there is a higher satisfaction degree of the governmental leaders when considering the educational level, there is a greater tendencies towards Taiwan’s independence on perception; the higher the media frequency and educational level, the more the tendencies towards Taiwan’s independence on are asserted. Third, when considering the local Taiwanese, when all self variations are in positive growth, people are more inclined to independence; when the satisfaction on economy is also in growth, people are inclined to independence on the issue of unification-independence opinion. When the age is older or the educational level is higher, people are more inclined to unification with the mainland. At last, when considering the other Ethnic groups from the mainland, when the satisfaction on economy is in growth, people are more inclined to independence on the issue of unification-independence cognition; the older people are, the more tendencies towards independence on the issue of unification-independence cognition; As for unification-independence opinion, the more educated people are, the more tendencies towards unification there will be.
    Appears in Collections:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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