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|Other Titles: ||Study in the relation of population growth and economic growth in mainland China|
|Authors: ||王川玉;Wang, Chuan-yu|
|Keywords: ||人口;人口增長;經濟成長;計畫生育;經濟周期;經濟發展;population;population growth;economic growth;birth control;economic cycles;Economic Development|
|Issue Date: ||2010-01-10 23:28:33 (UTC+8)|
In economic development, population is an important factor, population is not only a producer, but also a consumer. Its quantity and quality are all related to economic development. A main reason is which development of population and economic development exist each own regular pattern. There is also an inevitable correlation function between population’s growth and economic development. This study focus on the latter which the inevitable correlation between population’s growth and economic development. After and before the period of Mainland China generally try to carry out the birth control plan, the fluctuation type of economic development presents remarkable difference. The difference was shown according to the law rate of population growth and the reduction of economic fluctuation.
This study includes six chapters. The first chapter is an introduction. The second chapter is literature review. The third chapter is population growth and birth control policy in Mainland China. It contains about the general situation of population growth, the policy and executive outcomes of birth control. The fourth chapter is about economic growth and the executive policy of Mainland China. It includes general situation of economic growth, economic executive policy and outcome. The fifth chapter is about data analysis. It contains circulation and fluctuation of population and economic growth. It also builds up a simple regression model . The sixth chapter is conclusion and suggestion.
Three research results are summarized as follow:
1. There is a virtuous circle between population growth and economic growth in China: According to “the theory of demographic transition” and “reciprocal effect circulation theory”: (1) If population reduce (under birth control policy), Gross Domestic Product (GDP)、Gross National Income (GNI)、(FCI) increase；(2) GDP and GNI grow quickly and the quality of population enhance (school enrolment rate of all, school enrolment rate of higher education)
2. The Trade fluctuation in China form wave year and population peak year which are highly tally with each other. According to “theory of trade cycle fluctuation” : (1) The growth rate of GDP was happen in 50-90 years, the trade fluctuation has completely conform to the rate for six times. The other are nearly conform to the rate for three times. (2) 70-90 years to day, population plan in 1973 was listed in “National economic development plan”, after 90 years population steadily grow by low speed, and the trade fluctuation period extends longer .
3. Regression analysis: analyze the high efficiency and speed of economic growth is good for promoting the steady and speedy of population growth, vice versa.
To build up a simple regression model: Gross domestic product (GDP) and Gross national income(GNI) two variables and Population natural growth rate (PNI) exist a remarkable negative correlation. It means that Gross domestic product (GDP) is higher or Gross national income (GNI) is higher both are good for population natural growth rate (PNI) growth at low speed, vice versa.
|Appears in Collections:||[Graduate Institute of China Studies] Thesis|
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