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    題名: 中國大陸人口增長與經濟成長關係之研究
    其他題名: Study in the relation of population growth and economic growth in mainland China
    作者: 王川玉;Wang, Chuan-yu
    貢獻者: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班
    楊景堯;Yang, Ching-yao
    關鍵詞: 人口;人口增長;經濟成長;計畫生育;經濟周期;經濟發展;population;population growth;economic growth;birth control;economic cycles;Economic Development
    日期: 2008
    上傳時間: 2010-01-10 23:28:33 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 在經濟發展中,人口是一項重要的因素,人口不但是生產者,也是消費者,它的數量和質量都與經濟發展息息相關。主要原因是因為人口增長和經濟成長既有各自發展的規律,也有共體相生的作用,本研究著重於後者共體相生的作用。
    觀察中國大陸全面推行計畫生育之後的成效,與經濟成長的波動型態有著顯著的相關性,可由改革開放後,人口穩定低速增長與經濟波動次數的減少看出兩者之間的合力效應。
    本研究共分六章,第一章緒論;第二章文獻探討;第三章中國大陸人口增長與計畫生育政策,內容包括人口增長概況、計畫生育政策與執行成效;第四章中國大陸經濟成長與執行政策,內容包括經濟成長概況、經濟成長執行政策與成效;第五章資料分析,內容包括人口與經濟成長的循環與波動、以及建立一元線性迴歸模型;第六章結論與建議。
    研究發現有以下三點:
    1. 中國大陸人口增長與經濟成長是良性循環的關係。依據「人口轉變理論」、「交互影響循環理論」:(1)人口減少(在計畫生育之下),則國內生產總值(GDP)、國民總收入(GNI)和全社會固定生產投資總額(FCI),會增加;(2)國內生產總值(GDP)和國民總收入(GNI)增長快,則人口質量會提高(總在學率和高等教育在學率會提高)。
    2. 中國大陸經濟波動形成的波谷年與人口高峰年的符合性很高。依據「經濟周期波動理論」:(1)國內生產總值(GDP)之增長率,發現五○至九○年代,經濟波動有六次完全符合,三次接近符合。(2)七○至九○年代至今,人口計畫在1973年列入「國民經濟發展計畫」之中,九十年代之後人口開始穩定低速增長,經濟波動時間也隨之延長。
    3. 迴歸分析:分析人口增長(穩定的低速增長),有利於經濟成長(經濟高效率高速度發展);反之,亦然。
    建立一元線性迴歸模型:國內生產總值(GDP)和國民總收入(GNI)兩變項與人口自然增長率(PNI)有顯著的負相關。意即國內生產總值(GDP)越高,或是國民總收入(GNI)越高,均有利於人口自然增長率(PNI)的低速增長;反之,人口愈增長,對GDP及GDI愈有不利的影響。
    In economic development, population is an important factor, population is not only a producer, but also a consumer. Its quantity and quality are all related to economic development. A main reason is which development of population and economic development exist each own regular pattern. There is also an inevitable correlation function between population’s growth and economic development. This study focus on the latter which the inevitable correlation between population’s growth and economic development. After and before the period of Mainland China generally try to carry out the birth control plan, the fluctuation type of economic development presents remarkable difference. The difference was shown according to the law rate of population growth and the reduction of economic fluctuation.

    This study includes six chapters. The first chapter is an introduction. The second chapter is literature review. The third chapter is population growth and birth control policy in Mainland China. It contains about the general situation of population growth, the policy and executive outcomes of birth control. The fourth chapter is about economic growth and the executive policy of Mainland China. It includes general situation of economic growth, economic executive policy and outcome. The fifth chapter is about data analysis. It contains circulation and fluctuation of population and economic growth. It also builds up a simple regression model . The sixth chapter is conclusion and suggestion.



    Three research results are summarized as follow:
    1. There is a virtuous circle between population growth and economic growth in China: According to “the theory of demographic transition” and “reciprocal effect circulation theory”: (1) If population reduce (under birth control policy), Gross Domestic Product (GDP)、Gross National Income (GNI)、(FCI) increase;(2) GDP and GNI grow quickly and the quality of population enhance (school enrolment rate of all, school enrolment rate of higher education)
    2. The Trade fluctuation in China form wave year and population peak year which are highly tally with each other. According to “theory of trade cycle fluctuation” : (1) The growth rate of GDP was happen in 50-90 years, the trade fluctuation has completely conform to the rate for six times. The other are nearly conform to the rate for three times. (2) 70-90 years to day, population plan in 1973 was listed in “National economic development plan”, after 90 years population steadily grow by low speed, and the trade fluctuation period extends longer .
    3. Regression analysis: analyze the high efficiency and speed of economic growth is good for promoting the steady and speedy of population growth, vice versa.
    To build up a simple regression model: Gross domestic product (GDP) and Gross national income(GNI) two variables and Population natural growth rate (PNI) exist a remarkable negative correlation. It means that Gross domestic product (GDP) is higher or Gross national income (GNI) is higher both are good for population natural growth rate (PNI) growth at low speed, vice versa.
    顯示於類別:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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