| Abstract: | 中共「國台辦」自2000年9月起5日起，每月舉行新聞發布會1次。並自2003年11月起改為每月兩次。此一新聞發布會之舉辦時機、內容與形式，恰可提供一個研究中共對台政策轉型之絕佳素材。因為其時機，橫跨中共兩代領導人江澤民與胡錦濤兩個時期；而其內容範圍具體明確，可供量化研究之參考。
本文採取內容分析法，將「國台辦」新聞發布會發表迄2007年9月26日共85篇文章，區分「披判我方」、「對台政策」、「遏制台獨」、「統戰意涵」、「經貿交流」、「文化交流」、「國際因素」、「兩岸犯罪」、「指名點評」等9個類目，共計2,922個主題（theme）。另將內容區分為主動與被動發布兩部分。分析結果發現，胡錦濤時期的「國台辦」新聞發布會仍深具統戰與宣傳的意涵，呈現一種向上的階梯式關係，以「一中原則」與「黨的領導」為基礎，以「和平統一」為最終目標，以「發展」為引導，以「科學發展觀」及「宏觀調控」進行全面而多元的手段，進行排序與組合，以類似「超限戰」的無限組合手法，達到有限的具體目標。我們可以說，胡錦濤的變在於迴避敏感與務實執行；而他的不變在於更為加遽堅持「一中原則」與共產黨的領導。在中共的對台政策中，沒有了「不變」的原則，就將沒有「變」的意義。所以爾後觀察歷屆中共領導人的對台政策時，應優先研究渠等對於不變原則的立場變化，次再分析其所衍生與發展的各種手段。
所以，胡錦濤的對台政策就中共的戰略利益而言，相較於江澤民時期並沒有太大原則性的改變，改變的是他以此等原則所發展出的各種多元的手段，以及對於宣傳工具的巧妙運用，與共黨理論的深刻內化反省落實等。以此觀之，胡錦濤仍是一位保守型的典型共產黨員，堅守傳統原則，其對台政策並無根本性的改變。
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the State Council began to hold monthly press conferences starting September 5, 2000. The frequency changed to bi-monthly beginning from November, 2003. The timing of the press conferences’ occurrence, contents and form provide the best possible material for studying the transformation of China’s Taiwan policy. The reasons are: (1) the timings straddle the eras of China’s leaders of two generations, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao; and (2) the content coverage is well-defined and may serve as reference for quantitative research.
The content analysis method adopted here is used to divide the 85 articles released at TAO’s press conferences by September 26, 2007 into 9 categories: China’s criticisms on Taiwan, China’s Taiwan policy, suppression against Taiwanese Independence, implications of the united front, economic and trade exchanges, cultural exchanges, international factors of cross-strait crimes, and singling out for criticism. There are in total 2,922 themes. The contents are divided into actively and passively released items.
Findings of the analysis indicate that press releases by the TAO in the era of Hu Jintao still strongly imply a united front and propaganda, and show an upward ladder relationship. Based on the One China principle and the Communist party leadership, the ultimate objective is peaceful unification. Then, prioritization and combination are conducted with all-compassing and diverse approaches that are guided by development and carried out based on scientific development ideas and macro adjustment. An approach for limitless combinations similar to asymmetrical warfare is used to attain limited concrete objectives. It is fair to say that Hu initiates changes to avoid sensitive issues and realistically implement them, while he never deviates in reinforcing his insistence upon the One China principle and Communist party leadership. In China’s Taiwan policy, “change” becomes meaningless without the “changelessness” principle. It is therefore important to first examine changes in the positions of successive Chinese leaders regarding the “changelessness” principle before analyzing the subsequently derivative and developed various approaches in future observations on these leaders’ Taiwan policies.
Therefore, Hu’s Taiwan policy does not have significant principle changes in terms of China’s strategic benefits compared to the era of Jiang Zemin. Changes lie in the various diverse approaches that he has developed based on this principle, the clever use of propaganda tools and internalization; and reflection and actualization of Communist party theories. In this view, Hu remains a typical conservative Communist party member and adheres to traditional principles. His Taiwan policy has no fundamental changes. |
