大陸宏觀調控中貨幣政策之研究 : 兼論貨幣政策傳導機制

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题名:	大陸宏觀調控中貨幣政策之研究 : 兼論貨幣政策傳導機制
其它题名:	A research of monetary policy and the transmitting channels in the macro-economic control in China
作者:	張舜傑;Chang, Shun-chieh
贡献者:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班郭建中;Guo, Jiann-jong;王泰銓;Wang, Tai-chuan
关键词:	大陸;宏觀調控;貨幣政策;貨幣政策傳導機制;緊縮性貨幣政策;擴張性貨幣政策;Mainland China;Macro-Economic Control;Monetary policy;Transmitting Channels for Monetary Policy;Deflationary Monetary Policy;Expansionary Monetary Policy
日期:	2005
上传时间:	2010-01-10 23:28:20 (UTC+8)
摘要:	追求長期穩定的經濟成長是每個國家不斷追求的目標，中國自1979年改革開放以來，雖然經濟迅速成長，卻也數度大起大落。中國不斷透過「宏觀調控」修正其經濟政策，早期宏觀調控仰賴行政手段，近年來愈來愈注重以經濟方式作為調控的工具。本研究就以大陸的貨幣政策為標的，以文獻分析法與次級資料分析法，研究1998年與2004年兩次宏觀調控中，大陸實行貨幣政策措施的效用。　　有關貨幣政策能否影響實質經濟活動，以及貨幣政策是透過何種傳導機制達到預期效果，一直是總體經濟學家討論的課題。本研究分析幾位重要西方經濟學家的論述後，發現一般常見的利率傳導渠道並不適用於中國大陸。然而，信用傳導機制理論的假設更符合大陸的經濟情況，因為大陸企業和居民對利率變動不敏感、金融市場與貨幣市場的發展規範不足、缺乏價格市場化、銀行業具有強烈壟斷性質，因而存在不完全競爭市場，大陸貨幣政策主要還是依賴信貸控制。　　本研究發現，由於大陸的金融體制尚未完善，價格或利率的傳導效率也較低，因此1998年的寬鬆貨幣政策出現了較長時間的效驗落後，低靡的經濟到了2003年才再度熱絡，甚而造成部份行業過熱的現象。2004年大陸再展開一連串緊縮貨幣政策，以防止這波經濟成長泡沫化。　　從這兩次宏觀調控中可看出，大陸的調控措施逐漸加大經濟手段的力度，如法定存款準備率、再貼現和公開市場操作，呈現向大陸典型的雙軌制過渡方式，不過信貸渠道一直是主要貨幣政策的傳導方式。 Every nation targets and pursues a steady long-term economic growth. Although the economy in Mainland China has been grown up rapidly, the situation has not been static since the reform and open-up policy in 1997. Therefore, Mainland China continues amending the economic policy by Macro-Economic Control taken by administration measures in early stages. Nevertheless, Macro-Economic Control is emphasized on the economic way in recent years. The research is based on the Monetary Policy and to analyze the efficacy of the Monetary Policy during the Macro-Economic Control in 1998 and 2004 by Document Analysis and Secondary Analysis. “Dose Monetary Policy really affect the economic activities practically?”, “Which transmitting channel for monetary policy is to be used for work?” This is always a popular assignment for macroeconomist to study for. The research analyzed some theory of western economics and found out that transmission channels of interest seem not to be suitable for use for Mainland China. However, the hypothesis of transmission channels of credit is conformed to the economic situation of Mainland China. It is because that the industries and residents do not really take notice of interest. Moreover, no adequate of financial and money market, the lack of price marketization and the corner of banks cause to the Imperfectly Competitive Market. As a result, Monetary Policy of Mainland China is still based on Credit Control. The research shows that expansionary monetary policy had long times impact lag in 1998. This is due to the financial system in China was not maturity and the monetary efficiency of price and interest rate was lower. Therefore, the depressed economic situation was not prosperous until 2003 and also brought about the over-headed of some industries. Furthermore, in 2004, a chain of deflationary monetary policy had been taken to prevent the bubble smash of the economic growth in Mainland China. After executing Macro-Economic Control twice times, it can be found out that macro measures in Mainland China are taken to strengthen the economic means (ex. required reserve ratio, rediscount rate policy and open market operation) and showed the transitional methods of Mainland China typical Double Track. However, credit channel is always the main transmission way of Monetary Policy.
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