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    題名: 二O O五臺灣「三合一」選舉後陳水扁政府大陸政策調整之研究
    其他題名: A study on Taiwan's three-in-one election and the fixing statement on China policy have been made the great changed by Mr. Chen Shui-Bain's governmen after election.
    作者: 何公韜;Ho, Kung-tao
    貢獻者: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班
    潘錫堂;Pan, His-tang
    關鍵詞: 「三合一」選舉;大陸政策;九二共識;「終統」;「積極管理、有效開放」;Three-in-One Election;China Policy;Changed;termination
    日期: 2007
    上傳時間: 2010-01-10 23:27:49 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 第一部份,研究生將就所觀察的政策背景與整理出的初步資料來陳述研究的動機,主要是在三合一選舉前後民意所表現出對政府改善經濟不力、官僚弊案連連、兩岸關係不安的情況下,在三合一選舉時,對民進黨執政團隊做了一次政策的期中檢驗,結果顯示民進黨政府的施政確實影響了此一選舉,對此政府勢必對此加以因應。
    再者,假設民進黨政府勢將在未來,特別是攸關於國家定位與發展的兩岸關係優先進行調整,據以主導未來發展,研究生擬以「大小政治實體」分析途徑與「選票極大化」模式、與「決策分析」途徑來檢視政府的政策產出與調整,期能對於未來政策的發展提供一系統化與概念化的陳述,以玆觀察者參考與討論之研究資料與依據。
    第二部分,將透過相關專家對於決策理論的探討與研究,提供一建構當前政府大陸政策決策之論述依據。在理論探討與比較之後,擇其與當前政府決策模式類似者來作為觀察與資料分析的工具,並且推論出當前政府決策可能的決策模式以及未來可能的政策方向。因此,本章的重點在於多方地搜羅相關的理論依據,並加以比較分析,找尋出切適於觀察政府決策的模式;除此,也希望藉由模式的建立與觀察,找尋出決策上的盲點與疏漏之處,以供論文研究建議。
    第三部份,我們首先探討三合一選舉的意義,政府決定此一選舉形式改變的背景因素;其次,將分析陳水扁總統所屬的民進黨在此一選舉敗選的因素,並著重於兩岸關係所影響的層面。最後,總結前兩者的分析結果,歸納推演出陳水扁政府未來在大陸政策上所可能有的調整與其意涵。主要關注的政策發展以政治與經濟議題為主。
    選後,陳水扁政府在大陸政策上,政治層面所做的重要調整首推宣佈廢除國家統一委員會與國家統一綱領。在此一構想提出時,立刻引起國內外包括美、中共、日本等國家的高度關注,然而在內外施壓的情況下,陳水扁總統仍然堅持力行此一政策,最後以「終止」字眼取代「廢止」的形式作結。在陳水扁總統年初宣示將在未來一年做對的事,轉身之間,即推出了此一震驚國內外的政治議題,並以極大的決心予以通過,則此必然非即興之作。然而,此一作為,與其對大陸政策的調整有何關聯,具有何種意涵,以及其未來可能的發展,研究生將從國外(主要以美中「台」關係、中共對台政策為主)、國內(經濟發展狀況、國家安全形勢、統獨的認同)、以及決策者的心理途徑加以分析。
    二O O O年,陳水扁總統就任之初,宣示未來執政將走所謂的「新中間路線」,因此,其執政初期在大陸經貿關係持續加強對台影響與國內經濟發展緩慢之際,在二O O O年底召開了跨黨派與集產官學界各方的經發會,會後確定了以「積極開放、有效管理」因應兩岸經貿與國內經濟發展。然而,在政策執行多年後,兩岸經貿關係非但不因政策管制而減緩對大陸傾斜,反倒因管制措施的漏洞,更加速了兩岸經貿之依存,一方面政府當局警覺情況發展的嚴重性,另一方面,企業團體對於政府的管制措施亦多有怨言,兩岸經貿問題至今仍是政府與業界之間爭論的焦點;二O O五年底,台灣的「三合一選舉」結束,輿論將民進黨敗選原因歸納於執政上的弊病,然而,從政黨施政取向來看,亦呈現出民意對於政府經濟發展不力、而政治動作頻頻的不滿。從二O O五年十月十二日「瑞士銀行亞洲經濟師」安德森(Jonathan Anderson)發表的「困境中的台灣」的研究報告,他指出目前看來中國是台灣未來的唯一希望,包括各項投資與建設數據都顯示中國正在興起,改善兩岸關係,是改善台灣經濟環境最重要的管道。實則,當前國內的發展癥結在於經濟上面臨瓶頸,此時大陸市場所造成的「磁吸效應」是問題的關鍵之一,就此而論,陳水扁總統於選後不久的「元旦談話」,即作出選後的政策調,首先即針對兩岸經貿議題將行之有年的「積極開放,有效管理」調整為「積極管理、有效開放」,實則突顯出兩岸的經貿因素在國內政策上的影響更是日益提昇。
    結論的部分,綜合前面各章節所論述與歸納的重點,演繹出陳水扁政府於三合一選舉後政策調整背後可能的決策因素與決策思維;其次,針對政策調整的部分作出簡單的評估,最後綜整研究心得提出幾點成果,以為後續研究之參考。
    After the election and on the China policy of Chen Shui-Bian government, the major adjustment made on the political level was announcement of abolishment of the National Unification Committee and the National Unification Outline. Upon presentation of this thinking, high concern was raised in the international sectors including countries like USA, China and Japan etc. However, even under pressure internally and externally, President Chen still insisted to implement this policy and finally this was concluded in the form of using the wording of “termination” to replace “abolishment”. When President Chen declared in the beginning of the year that he would do the right thing in the coming one year, however, he brought out this political issue that shocked both in the country and abroad in one turn instead and he passed it with extreme determination and this was not an impromptu work..
    In the year 2000 President Chen Shui-Bian declared that the future ruling would be the so called “new middle route”. Therefore, in the beginning of his ruling the economic and trade relationship with China continued its enhancement on the effect on Taiwan and at the time when the economic development slowed down, at the end of 2000, the cross party economic and industry meeting was convened together with various sectors including government and academic. After the meeting, the “active liberation, effective management” was confirmed to cope with the economic and trade between the two straits and domestic economic development.
    In the end of 2005, the “three-in-one election” in Taiwan ended and the public opinion summed up the reason of the failure in the election of the DPP was the malpractice in the ruling. However, looking from the direction of political party ruling, it also revealed that the public opinion was dissatisfied with bad effort of the government on the economic development and frequent political actions. From the research report on “Taiwan in difficulty” published by Jonathan Anderson on October 12, 2005 who was the “Asian Economist of Bank of Switzerland”, he pointed out that it seemed that China was the only hope for Taiwan at present. Various investment and construction data revealed that China was emerging and improvement on the relationship of the two straits would be the most important channel to improve the economic environment of Taiwan.
    In fact, the development crucial point in the country was because the economy was facing a bottleneck and one of the key problems was the “magnetic effect” caused by the China market. Based on this to discuss, the ‘new year talk” by President Chen who was being elected not too long made the tone of the policy after the election that first of all, the “active liberation, effective management” that was exercised for years aiming at the economic and trade issue of the two straits would be adjusted as “active management, effective liberation”. Substantially this manifested that the influence of the economic and trade factor of the two straits on domestic policy increased from day to day.
    For the conclusion, the discussion of the above various chapters and sections and the summarized major points are combined together to deduce the possible decision factor and decision thinking at the back of the policy adjustment of the Chen Shui-Bian government after the three-in-one election. Secondary, simple evaluation is conducted on the policy adjustment. A few results are presented after summarizing the research gains that can be served as reference for subsequent research.
    顯示於類別:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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