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    Title: 三二○公投對兩岸關係之影響
    Other Titles: The impact of Taiwan's referendum on March 20 on cross-strait relations
    320公投對兩岸關係之影響
    Authors: 陳柏伶;Chen, Po-ling
    Contributors: 淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班
    蘇起;Su, Chi
    Keywords: 公民投票;公民投票法;兩岸關係;三二○公投;防衛性公投;防禦性公投;referendum;plebiscite;the Referendum Law;Cross-Strait Relations;the March 20 referendum;preventive referendum;defensive referendum
    Date: 2006
    Issue Date: 2010-01-10 23:27:23 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 在一般民主國家,公民投票是直接民主的展現,公民投票的目的乃是為了彌補代議政治的不足,它被視為民主政治運作的正常現象。然而在台灣,公民投票的訴求始終是極爭議的議題,它不但引發了泛藍陣營和民進黨間的激烈對抗,並且導致美國和中共不同程度的強烈反應。
    在台灣,人民以擁有參與政治事務的權利為傲。然而大多數的台灣人認為三二○公投涉及選舉策略考量,致使他們對公投舉辦的必要性、公投的法源基礎,甚至公投舉辦的時間點產生莫大的疑慮,這些爭議不但引發極大的爭論,造成朝野對立,更導致社會族群分裂。而三二○公投後的抗爭示威活動更影響台灣政治的穩定,甚至對台灣人民得來不易的民主成就造成實質的傷害。
    另一方面,當陳水扁總統提請防衛性公投之際,美國猛然發現台灣的公投旨在改變兩岸現狀,為此美國改變其在台海政策的一貫立場,不僅將其台海政策由原本的「戰略模糊」轉為「戰略清晰」,甚至公開表明底線,在台獨的立場上作清楚的表態,防止台灣片面改變台海現狀,進而危及東亞海域的穩定。
    至於中共,自從陳水表發表「一邊一國論」後,中共當局便放棄對陳水扁總統的「聽其言、觀其行」策略,並且升高對扁政府的敵意,對陳水扁的台獨行徑嚴加看管,以免台灣當局做出違反「一中原則」的言行。而當台灣宣布舉辦公投時,北京更認為民進黨當局是在走漸進式台獨的路線,於是便發表文章和輿論批判台灣公投,甚而舉辦軍事演習,意圖達到恐嚇台灣的目的。更甚者,中共更一改向來反對國際勢力介入兩岸局勢的思維,主動引進美國勢力,意圖假手美國達到對台施壓的效果。
    大體而言,三二○公投對美、中、台均造成深遠的影響,它不但使美台關係陷入低潮,雙方的互信亦受到破壞,即便是兩岸關係也處在極度緊繃的狀態。更重要的是,台灣的民主成就和形象亦因涉及選舉策略操作的公投而遭抹滅,對我民主歷程發展是一大影響。
    Referendums are expressions of direct democracy in most democratic countries. Their purposes are to make up for shortcomings in representative politics. They are viewed as a normal phenomenon of democratic political action. However, the call for referendums in Taiwan has been a contentious issue. It not only sparks violent partisan rows between the pan-blue camp and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), but also meets with reactions of varying intensity from Washington and Beijing.
    In Taiwan, people take pride in their right to participate political affairs. However, most of them think the referendum on March 20 is involved in campaign strategy, so that they suspect the necessity of holding the referendum, the legal basis of referendum, even the timing of referendum. The violent debate causes a great deal of dissension and breaks the hard-won democratic achievements of Taiwanese.
    On the other hand, when President Chen Shui-bian proposes the defensive referendum, the U.S. becomes abruptly aware that Taiwan’s referendum aims to change cross-strait status quo. For this reason, Washington return the favor by shifting his stance on cross-strait policy from “strategic ambiguity” to “strategic clarity”, unequivocally defining his administration’s position on the Taiwan independence issue.
    As to Beijing, since President Chen proposed “one state on each side” statement, the mainland authorities gave up the “listen and see” strategy to President Chen and heightened its opposition to Chen administration. Even the intention to hold a referendum is announced, Beijing thinks the Chen administration is taking the gradual path to Taiwan independence. Therefore, mainland China uses articles and public comments to criticize Taiwan. He even holds military exercises in an attempt to intimidate the people of Taiwan. More seriously, the mainland authorities make attempts to use the U.S. to put Taiwan under pressure.
    Generally speaking, the referendum on March 20 influences the three-sided relations among Taiwan, the U.S., and mainland China. It makes Taiwan-America relations fall to a low, and the mutual trust between the authorities on both sides is broken. Even cross-strait relations are at their tensest. More importantly, Taiwan’s democratic images and achievements are destroyed by the referendum with campaign strategy.
    Appears in Collections:[中國大陸研究所] 學位論文

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