地理資訊系統應用於中國大陸城鄉居民收入差距之研究

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Title:	地理資訊系統應用於中國大陸城鄉居民收入差距之研究
Other Titles:	Income inequality of urban-rural China : the perspective of geographic information system
Authors:	傅鵬宇;Fu, Peng-yu
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班陳建甫;Chen, Chien-fu
Keywords:	中國大陸;收入不公平;區域與城鄉差距;地理資訊系統;Mainland China;Income Inequality;Regional and Urban–rural Disparity;Geographic Information System (GIS)
Date:	2005
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:27:11 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	鄧小平的「允許一部分人可以先富起來，帶動幫助其他地區、其他的人，逐步達到共同富裕」的經濟目標，雖然使一部分人富裕起來，卻導致中國收入差距擴大，財富分配嚴重不公平。本研究在探討中國大陸自1978年改革開放以來，所呈現的城鄉居民收入差距擴大的現象，分析其形成的背景、原因與未來趨勢。本論文以區域之間的收入差距與城鄉之間的收入差距作為撰寫論文的主軸，採用城市居民人均可支配收入與農村居民人均純收入作為衡量的經濟指標，以收入的相對差距以及絕對差距作為衡量差距的指標，差距嚴重地區定義為高於全國平均水準地區，並將中國大陸劃分為三十一個省市自治區、三大地帶和八大經濟區等不同區域範圍做探討，使用中國官方所提供的相關數據資料。有別於以往的文字敘述，本研究利用地理資訊系統(Geographic Information System))建立收入數據的資料庫，並製作收入差距現象的時空地圖，分析1978年至2003年收入差距現象在地圖上的空間分布與擴散情形。對於收入差距的未來趨勢，使用MINITAB統計軟體所提供的直線趨勢、二次方程式、成長曲線和S-Curve等四種趨勢分析模型；檢驗後發現以二次方程式模型最適合，因此以模型所預測之收入，利用相對差距以及絕對差距指標分析城鄉居民收入差距至2008年的未來趨勢。主要發現有：一、區域間：絕對差距在不同城市之間最嚴重，2003年城市收入最高的上海為14867元，最低的寧夏為6530元，相差8337元；相對差距在不同農村之間最嚴重，2003年農村收入最高的上海為6654元，最低的貴州為1564元，差距比為4.25：1。二、城鄉間：全國城鄉居民收入相對差距曲線呈現W字型的下降上升趨勢，曲線高峰為1978、1994和2003(3.23：1)年，低峰為1983和1997年；絕對差距部份：1992年鄧小平南巡後差距曲線快速上升，但隨後受到城市下崗與國有企業改革不順等因素影響減緩了收入差距的擴大；1997年以後差距曲線再次快速上升，在2003年達到5850元。三、相對差距比：西部高於中部，中部略高於東部地帶；絕對差距比：東部高於西部，西部高於中部地帶。四、隨時間變動，相對差距嚴重地區的分布範圍呈縮小的趨勢，由甘、川、滇、黔等地向四周擴散，再完全集中在西部地區。2003年以西藏最為嚴重，相對差距為5.18：1；絕對差距嚴重地區分布範圍也呈現縮小的趨勢，由西部地區向大陸地圖南方移動，再集中於東南沿海以及西南地區。2003年以廣東省最嚴重，絕對差距為8325.85元。五、以八大地區劃分：2003年以大西北地區、黃河中游、西南等地區為相對差距嚴重地區；以北部沿海、東部沿海、南部沿海等地區為絕對差距嚴重地區。六、2008年城市人均可支配收入為12558.6元，農村人均純收入為4016.07元，城鄉收入相對差距為3.13：1而絕對差距為8542元，而2003年以後若無重大事件影響，相對差距將再次出現縮小趨勢，但絕對差距仍持續擴大。 The economic goal of Deng Xiaoping is to allow some regions and people to get rich first so they can help others for common prosperity. But the economy growth result to income inequality, region and urban-rural inequality. This study aims to investigate the regional and urban-rural inequality in mainland China during the period of 1978 to 2003, and employ Geographic Information System to present the inequality areas in the digital map. In addition, this study utilizes trend analysis model of MINITAB to forecast income inequality in 2008. This study examines the regional and urban-rural inequality, by economic index “per capital annual net income of rural households” and “per capital annual disposable income of urban households”. In addition, we use”relatively disparity” and “absolutely disparity” to measure income inequality. The most inequality areas are defined as income higher than the average out of the whole nation. In addition, there are four trend analysis models in MINITAB, including the Linear, Quadratic, Exponential growth, and S-Curve model. We use the Quadratic model to predict the income disparity in 2008. This study find that the absolutely disparity is the most inequality areas between different cities, and between different villages of the relatively disparity. The gap of the absolutely disparity between the highest and the lowest income at urban is 8337, and the relatively disparity at rural is 4.25. Second, the curve of income relatively disparity line to be a W shape. The peak of the curve is 1978, 1994 and 2003. The low point of the curve is 1983 and 1997. The curve of income absolutely disparity was to rise very fast when Deng Xiaoping to travel in the South China in 1992. Third, the curve of income relatively disparity in the West is higher than in the Middle, and in the Middle is higher than in the East. In addition, the curve of income absolutely disparity in the East is higher than in the West, and in the West is higher than in the Middle. Fourth, the scope of the most inequality areas of the income relatively disparity has reduced, and the scope was concentrated in the West. The scope of the most inequality areas of the income absolutely disparity has reduced, too, and the scope was concentrated in the Southeast coastal and Southwest area. Fifth, the most inequality areas of income relatively disparity is the Northwest area, the Middle reaches area of the Yellow River and the Southwest area. The most inequality areas of income absolutely disparity is the Northern Coastal, the Middle Coastal, and the South Coastal in the eight major areas in 2003. Sixth, we find the per capital annual disposable income of urban households is 12558.60, and the per capital annual net income of rural households is 4016.07 in 2008. The gap of the income relatively disparity between the highest and the lowest income at urban-rural is 8542, and the income relatively disparity at urban-rural is 3.13. So, we agree the inequality of the income absolutely disparity of urban-rural China will be continuing in the future.
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