中共中央領導人權力繼承之探研－從江澤民到胡錦濤

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Title:	中共中央領導人權力繼承之探研－從江澤民到胡錦濤
Other Titles:	A probe into transfer of power of China's national leaders --- from Jiang, Zemin to Hu, Jintao
Authors:	劉天祥;Liu, Tien-hsiang
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班潘錫堂;Pan, His-tang
Keywords:	權力繼承;政治轉移;派系;集體領導;political succession;transfer of power;Political transfer;Faction;collective leadership
Date:	2007
Issue Date:	2010-01-10 23:24:13 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	政治權力繼承向來是倍受民眾關注的話題，全球任何國家皆然。民主法制國家，對於權力轉換，自有一套透由民意為基礎的選舉機制來產生新的領導者；然而，集權專制的共產國家則否，它們的權力繼承可能透過鬥爭、革命、指定，或是宮廷政變而產生，相對於民主國家，共產國家的權力繼承顯然複雜多變，而且更不可預期。　　中國大陸的權力繼承，從毛澤東以降，歷經了鄧小平、江澤民，到現今第四代領導人胡錦濤，最高權力的轉移也由早期殘酷血腥的政治鬥爭，慢慢的走向較有跡可尋的遴才模式，然無可諱言的，即使中共各級幹部選拔漸形成制度，但中央核心的集體領導群的產生過程仍充滿變數，以大衛伊斯頓（David Easton）的政治系統理論來看，在輸入項和輸出項過程中間的「黑箱」變數佔了過大的比例，而使得結果產生不穩定性，這個「黑箱」就是人治操控，在人治的共產制度下，權力繼承總是摻雜了無法預測的「人」的因素，本篇研究在此限制下，希望藉由中共目前漸形成較有規律的人事制度，來分析中共權力繼承的過程和未來可能走向，更深入的瞭解中共權力中樞的運作模式。　　全篇研究分為六個章節，首章為緒論；第二章以歷史回顧方式看中共歷代領導核心接班情形；第三章對焦在江、胡二位主政時期，從期間的中共省級黨政主要領導任用，來分析中共人事制度改革與權力繼承模式形成；第四章由中共領導幹部任期制的發展與人事制度演變，來看中共權力繼承制度化的趨勢；第五章從胡錦濤職務歷練著手，來看中共集體領導體制的形成，進而從江、胡傳承分析中共菁英政治的走向。經過五章的探討，可看出中共權力繼承過程概況，也可看出現今中共的「集體領導」和「菁英政治」是中國大陸目前最穩定的權力維持模式，結論即以前五章為基礎，歸納研究發現和後續研究方向，從中共現任的菁英群中找尋第五代接班人的優勢族群，並以此考驗研究的客觀性。　　總體來看，中共前四代的權力繼承方式都不相同，毛澤東以一己之私，發動十年浩劫的文革，鬥垮了劉少奇、林彪，權力繼承充滿了腥風血雨；鄧小平以實力擊退華國鋒，建立幹部任用制度化雛型成，乃中共最後的政治強人；江澤民因六四事件，在胡耀邦和趙紫陽先後垮台情形下，異軍突起繼位；胡錦濤則是以隔代指定接班的儲君角色，潛行十年而接大權。在中共四代的權力繼承中，我們可以發現血腥、惡鬥、混亂的情形漸少，且有逐漸走向制度化的趨勢，這是我們所樂見的，也希望透由這篇研究，開啟相關研究學者對中共權力繼承的興趣之窗，揭開中共權力移轉過程的神秘面紗。 Transfer of Power is a hot issue in almost every country of the world. In a democratic state, a national leader is elected through democratic system. However, in an autocracy, a state ruler may come to power through political struggle, revolution, designation, or coup. Compared to democracies, transfer of power in communist countries is apparently much more complicated and unpredictable. Transfer of power in China has occurred from the first generation leader Mao Zhedong, down to Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, until the current fourth-generation leader Hu Jintao. The transfer of power has changed from bloody political struggle to the more moderate way of picking out the suitable candidates. Although an institutionalized system of selecting government cadres at various levels are already in place, the selection of the nation’s core leaders is far from transparent. In this socialism state unpredictable “human factors” play a key role in transfer of power. This essay tries to analyze the process and future trend of transfer of power based on the current personnel mechanism, hoping to offer a better understanding of the operational mechanism in China’s top leadership. There are six chapters in this thesis. Chapter 1 is the introduction. Chapter 2 reviews the transfer of power from the first generation to the fourth. Chapter 3 focuses on selection and assignment of cadres at the provincial level during Jiang and Hu administrations. Personnel system reforms and transfer of power patterns are also analyzed in this chapter. Chapter 4 focuses the transfer trend based on leading cadres’ tenure and personnel system changes. Chapter 5 discusses the formation of China’s collective leadership based on Hu Jintao’s past work experiences, and probes into the trend of China’s elite politics. These five chapters give an overview of the factors affecting China’s transfer of power and conclude that collective leadership and elite politics are currently the best way to maintain political stability. The last chapter draws conclusion and findings from the previous five chapters, and raises follow-on research directions. It also predicts possible candidates for the fifth-generation leadership. The power transfer patterns for each administration are not the same. Mao Zhe-dong launched the disastrous Culture Revolution to purge Liu Sao-chi and Lin Biao in order to consolidate his personal power. This is a typical example of a bloody power struggle. Deng Xiaoping defeated Hua Guofon and set up the early talent selection system. This system marked the end of a strongman era in China. Jiang Zhemin came to power as the result of the June-4 incident. Hu Jintao was appointed the state leader by his predecessor two generations before. Bloodshed, power struggle and turmoil during transfer of power have been less common onward throughout the four administrations, and a more institutionalized system is present. This is a positive trend. It is hoped that this essay would interest researchers in China’s transfer of power, and give subsequences some insight into this closed-door process.
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