中國宏觀調控對房地產價格之影響及改進措施研究

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题名:	中國宏觀調控對房地產價格之影響及改進措施研究
其它题名:	China's macroeconomic effects the price of real estate and improvement study.
作者:	李庠宏;Li, Xiang-hueng
贡献者:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班郭建中;Guo, Jiann-jong
关键词:	房地產;宏觀調控;價格;Real estate;Macroeconomic Controls;Price
日期:	2008
上传时间:	2010-01-10 23:23:26 (UTC+8)
摘要:	房地產業是總體經濟的先導性、支柱性和基礎性產業，它的發展在很大程度上帶動和制約著城市和其他產業的發展，甚至帶動經濟的週期性波動。近兩年中國房地產投資過熱、房地產價格增長過快引起了全世界的關注。從一些已開發國家和地區房價變化歷史經驗來看，房價在短期內上升過快容易滋生房地產泡沫，破壞金融系統，可能會帶來長時間的經濟蕭條。房價持續快速上漲另一方面還會影響到居民的購買力，居住問題不能妥善解決會對社會穩定造成強大的負面影響。中國自2004年以來連續實施的宏觀調控措施已初見成效，房地產投資增速明顯回落，投機性需求得到抑制，房地產價格在竄升後高位趨穩。隨著調控措施的繼續落實，房地產投資將減速，房地產價格漲幅將逐漸回落。但是對房地產市場的宏觀調控取得的初步成效與國發[2003]18號檔提出的“供求總量基本平衡、結構基本合理、價格基本穩定”的宏觀調控目標尚有明顯距離。加之調控政策實施時間較短，且有些措施尚未完善，有些措施落實還需要時間，由此也帶來一些值得關注的新情況和新問題。所以要儘快完善和落實已實施的政策措施，針對當前中國房地產價格調控中存在的主要問題，如何更好地運用房地產宏觀調控手段，抑制房地產價格增長過快，緩解房地產價格波動有重要的研究意義。本文以房地產宏觀調控與房地產價格之間的關係為研究物件，從經濟學理論和上海房地產的實際情況論證了房地產宏觀調控對房地產價格的影響，總結出影響房地產宏觀調控政策效果的因素，並對今後的房地產宏觀調控提出未來方向。本文的內容主要在理論和政策建議兩個方面。在理論上，運用了經濟學、行政學等多學科的基礎理論對商品房價格波動的影響因素進行了研究。在政策建議上，如在土地制度上，建議活絡存量土地，完善土地供應辦法，增加用於商品住宅的土地供給；在稅收上，宜進行深入的結構性調整，加強稅收的調節作用抑制短期炒作行為，控制投資性購屋，建議開徵級差利得稅，中國政府可以考慮對購買商品房後短期即轉讓的所得稅課以高稅率。對於以自用為目的購買普通住房者，繼續給予有關稅收優惠政策；對於以投資為目的購買第二套以上商品住房和大戶型的，不得擅自給予稅收優惠；在信貸上，嚴格執行信貸政策，提高住房抵押貸款的資本成本。對貸款購買第二套以上(含第二套)住房的，應適當提高首付款比例；對借款人申請個人住房貸款購買高級商品房、別墅、商業用房或第二套以上(含第二套)住房的，不得享受個人住房貸款優惠利率，商業銀行執行中國人民銀行公佈的同期檔次貸款利率。銀監會應該改變現行的住房抵押貸款50%的風險權重的做法，將此類貸款的風險權重提高到100%的水平，從而提高商業銀行發放抵押貸款的資本成本；在供需調控上，保證中低價位普通商品住房供應，解決好中低收入家庭住房問題；建立中國各地市場供需結構狀況的通報制度，以鞭策結構性矛盾的突出區域，努力改進工作。 Real estate industry acts a leading，supporting and basic role in national economy； its development has great affections on the development of cities and other industries， even leads to cyclical movements of economy. Over-investments in real estate and rapid increases in the price of realty during the last two years have aroused the attention of the whole society. From the historic experiences of changes of real estate prices in some developed countries (areas)，if prices rise significantly in short time may have consequences such as real estate bubbles，breakage in financial system and long economic depression. If this goes on in a longer time，it will affect purchasing ability of citizens. Negative affections will incur if there are too many residence problems. In 2004，the continually promulgated macroscopic presidential measures have got a tentative effect: the speed of investment on the real estate decreased obviously；the profiteering demand got repressed；the price of real estate stayed in a high level. As the continually implement of the presidential measures，the investment will go on slower down and the price hike will come down gradually. The yearly building''s price hike will be lower than that of 2003.But there is still a great distance between the tentative effect of the macroscopic control of real estate market and the aim brought up in the country''s 18th [2003] document which requires the total demand and supply come to a balance； the structure is reasonable； the price is stable basically. What''s more，it''s only a short time from the promulgating of the policy and some measures still need improving while some others need time to carry out. And these also bring us new situation as well as issue which requires attention. As a result，the concerning department should try to improve and implement the newly promulgated policy as soon as possible，It is worthy of studying and researching on how to use macroeconomic controls to control the rapid increases and minimize fluctuations in real estate prices. This paper studied on the relations between macroeconomic controls in real estate and market prices. From the point of view of economics and situations of real estate market of Shanghai，the paper demonstrated the significant effects of macroeconomic controls in real estate on its prices. The paper gave some suggestions on the coming macroeconomic controls in real estate. The innovation of the thesis embodies in the two aspects: theory and policy advice. In theory，it analysis the fluctuations in the prices of commercial housing factors by using economics，administration and other subjects. In policy proposals，such as the land system， it advised the proposition of active stock of land，and the improvement of the supply of land to increase the residential land. In tax revenue，it advised to conduct an in-depth structural adjustment and strengthen the regulation of tax to inhibit short-term speculation， to control the housing investment，it proposed the Chinese government to introduce the differential profits tax，and to transfer of high-income rate classes when the purchase of commercial housing after shortly buying. For their own use for the purpose of the purchase of ordinary housing，it advised to continue to grant preferential policies on taxation; for the purpose of investment purpose of the purchase the second set for housing and large apartment，it advised not to allowed to give tax incentives. In credit，it advised to strict implementation of the credit policy to mortgage loans increased cost of capital. For those people who purchase above second (with the second set) of housing through loan，the first payment should be appropriately increasing. For those people who apply for individual housing loans to buy high-grade commercial housing，villas，commercial premises or above the second set (including the second set) housing，individual housing loans may not enjoy the preferential interest rates，commercial banks should perform the same period grade lending rate of the People''s Bank of China. CBRC should change the existing mortgage of 50 per cent risk-weight，put the risk-weight to 100%，so as to enhance commercial banks issuing mortgage cost of capital. In supply and demand control，it advised to promise the guarantee of low-priced commodity housing supply，in order to solve housing problems the low-income families. It advised to establish the communications system of the structure of market supply and demand situation of China to spur structural contradictions in the outstanding areas，and effort to improve the work.
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