民進黨執政下的台美中三邊關係演變 : 以2000至2004年為例

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题名:	民進黨執政下的台美中三邊關係演變 : 以2000至2004年為例
其它题名:	民進黨執政下的臺美中三邊關係演變 : 以2000至2004年為例 The change of U.S.-PRC.-Taiwan relationship after DDP come into power: case studies for 2000~2004
作者:	陳俊義;Chen, Chun-yi
贡献者:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士班張五岳;Chang, Wu-ueh
日期:	2005
上传时间:	2010-01-10 23:22:32 (UTC+8)
摘要:	台海的現狀，一向被視為亞太地區安全發展的一個重要觀察指標。從早期兩岸絕對對立、美台同盟孤立中共，到後來逐漸轉變為美中合作、美台關係漸趨冷淡，乃至兩岸逐漸開放、交流，至今民熱官冷的交流狀態。總體來看，台美中三邊雖在民間互動上積極開放，但在政治議題和官方交流上的牛步化，充滿高度不確定性，且隨著新聞事件和雙方領導人的談話，不時出現零星緊張衝突，而美國亦在兩岸衝突中，時而發表有利中國的言論，時而力挺台灣的力場，企圖維持雙方均衡對立的局勢，形成一個相互制衡、互相影響的戰略三角關係。正因為三邊互動關係充滿了詭譎多變，不僅種種複雜因素影響彼此關係，三邊關係的轉變同樣也會影響到亞洲地區甚至是整體國際情勢發展。因此五十多年來，三方學者不斷透過不同的研究方法、研究途徑、研究議題來觀察三邊互動關係發展，企盼從中找出能夠創造三贏的互動模式。從2000年開始，台灣首次政黨輪替，緊接著中共也進行第四代領導人交接，另方面，美國也在2000年底進行了權力轉移，由民主黨柯林頓政府，轉為共和黨的小布希政府執政，不同的治國理念，對於三邊關係進展勢必產生衝擊，再加上九一一事件影響，可預見地，台美中三邊互動在面對國內政權轉移變動、內部紛擾頻仍，以及國際情勢變化萬千，未來將可能隨之出現更為微妙的關係發展，值得國際情勢學者進一步觀察。筆者特別選擇2000年至2004年，此一包含美中台三方權力交接的時間點為研究範圍，透過媒體報導、領導者言論發表、法令公約條文以及過去相關研究等各種資料，以分裂國家模式、賽局理論和戰略三角三項理論分析，並採用比較方式，對比出三方在權力交接前後，不同領導人、不同政局影響下，台美中三邊關係上的演變。經過研究發現,兩岸三邊主要的癥結點在對「一個中國」認知的爭議，三方均希望對台海的現狀解釋有主導權，美國所謂的現狀即是「一個中國，兩岸透過和平對話解決爭端」；中國大陸對現狀的解釋「中國尚未統一，兩岸同屬一個中國」；台灣對現狀則是依民進黨台灣前途決議文的精神，「中華民國就是台灣，兩岸互不隸屬」。從台美中三邊關係的演變中可以發現，三方的戰略不變，但戰術隨其國內的政經情勢，國際關係的變化，戰術多有靈活的變化。而台灣面對中共和美國兩大強權，在政治操作上的面臨更多的限制和考量，「戰略模糊」策略，正可協助台灣在外交和兩岸關係上握有更多的發言權和談判空間，當戰略日益清晰，底線與框架也就會更加明確地突顯出來，反更為壓縮減少台灣的籌碼。 he current situation of the Taiwan Straits, always is regarded as the Asian-Pacific regional safety development an important observation target. Set from early two sides against definitely, the US and Taiwan alliance isolates the Chinese Communist Party, to afterwards gradually transformed for the American and Chinese cooperation, US and Taiwan relates gradually hastens desolately, and even two sides gradually opened, the exchange, until now the people’s hot officer’s cold exchange state so far. The overall looked, the US-PRC-Taiwan trilateral although in folk interaction positive opening, but in the political subject and the official exchange ox step, fills highly not the determinism, also along with the news event and the bilateral leaders’ conversation, often appears the fragmentary intense conflict, but US also sometimes publishes the favorable Chinese speech in two sides’ conflict, sometimes strength force field of Taiwan very, attempt to keep the situation that both sides set against proportionally, form a strategic triangle relation checking and balancing, influencing each other. Just because the trilateral interaction relations filled treacherously has been changeable, not only all sorts of complex factors affected each other relations, the trilateral relational transformation similarly also could affect the Asian area is even the whole international circumstance development. So for over 50 years, the tripartite scholar unceasingly has penetrated the different research approach, the research way, the research subject observes the trilateral interaction relations development, longed for discovers the interaction pattern which can create three wins. Since 2000, the Taiwan political party change, follows closely the Chinese Communist Party also to carry on the fourth generation of leader for the first time to connect with, another aspect, US has also carried on the power forward in 2000 year''s end, by the Democratic Party Clinton government, transfers Republican Party the young Bush government being in power, different ideas of running a country, develop and certainly will emerge and assault to the trilateral relation, again add on 911 events to affect, might foresee the place, the US, China and Taiwan trilateral interaction will be facing the domestic political power shift change, internal troubled is frequent, as well as the international circumstance will be eternally changing, future possibly will appear the subtler relational development along with it, will be worth the international circumstance scholar further observing. I especially choose from 2000 to 2004, this as soon as contains the time spot which the US, China and Taiwan tripartite authority connects with is the research scope, the penetration media reported, the leader opinion publication, the law joint pledge article as well as the past was connected the research and through various kinds of materials, split the national pattern, comparable to office theory and strategic triangle three theoretical analyses, and selected the comparison method front and rear, contrasted tripartite connects with in the authority, different leader, under different political situation influence, in US, China and Taiwan trilateral relations evolution. After the research discovery, main some disputes in cognition of “One China” of crux that two sides are trilateral, tripartite hoped to Taiwan Straits’ present situation explained has the leading power, the US so-called current situation is "One China, both sides penetration peace dialogue solution conflict"; Mainland China "China not yet unifies to the current situation explanation, both sides with are One China"; Taiwan to the present situation is according to Democratic Progressive Party Taiwan future resolution article spirit, " the Republic of China is Taiwan, two sides not under the jurisdiction of each other". Can be found from the development of the trilateral relations of the US, China and Taiwan, the tripartite strategy is invariable, but tactics is up to its domestic political economy situation, the change of the international relations, tactics have more flexible changes. But Taiwan facing the Communist Party of China and US two major power, in political operation faced with more restrictions and consideration, “strategy fuzzy” tactics, can help Taiwan in diplomatic to possess more right to speak and negotiate space with the cross-Straits relations, when the strategy is day by day clear, the agent and the frame also can explicitly suddenly appear, instead more compresses reduces Taiwan the chip
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