面對我國產業自由化的快速推展，以及液化石油氣市場即將於民國88年開放，但相關深入研究卻仍匱乏下，本文詳細的剖析影響我國家計部門液化石油氣需求之要因。實證結果發現液化石油氣、天然氣與所得等變數存在著共整合現象，所得對液化石油氣的影響主要是透過短期性之動態調整，天然氣則是透過長期之影響。此一實證結果隱含我國長期液化石油氣的需求乃主導於天然氣而非所得的成長，若單純的以所得成長來推估未來我國之長期液化石油氣需求量，恐怕會有所偏頗。借由本文之分析，適當的考量天然氣對液化石油氣之影響，應可較正確的估計我國未來對液化石油氣的需求，以降低自由化所可能帶給私部門投資不當的隱憂。 The factors influencing residential (LPG) demand are investigated in this article given the fact of rapid development of industrial liberalization and the opening of the LPG market in the near future. Empirical evidence shows that LPG, NG and income are cointegrated in the observed peiods. The impact of income on LPG is through the short run dynamic adjustment rather than the long run error correction mechanism (ECM) effect of NG on LPG. Such a result indicates that Taiwan's national residential LPG long-term demand is dominated by the evolution of NG but not by the income growth rate. Furthermore, biased estimation will result if we predict Taiwan's long-term residential LPG demand by considering the income growth rate only. It is then believed that private LPG investment misallocation followed by the liberalization advocated recently will by reduced when the conclusions raised by these author are considered.
人文及社會科學集刊=Journal of Social Sciences and Philosophy 11(3)，頁335-358