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    題名: Time-varying discrete monetary policy reaction functions
    作者: Huang, Ho-chuan;Lin, Shu-chin
    貢獻者: 淡江大學經濟學系
    日期: 2006-03
    上傳時間: 2009-11-30 18:36:48 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Taylor & Francis
    摘要: A novel dynamic ordered probit model with time-varying parameters is proposed to estimate a monetary policy reaction function with narrative-based monetary indicators. The estimation and inference are carried out using the Bayesian simulation-based approach. Empirically, these are the following findings. First, there is strong evidence in support that the Central Bank in Taiwan responds counter-cyclically to inflation but weaker, if any, evidence to economic growth. Secondly, the persistence and consistence in policy-making of the monetary authority is confirmed by the significance of the positive autoregressive coefficient. Although not all, the estimates of the TVP-DOP model provide, at least, partial support of time-varying parameters. Finally, the results indicate that studies of the discrete monetary policy reaction functions without explicitly considering the possible dynamics inherent in the time series data and time-variations in model parameters may be inappropriate, if not incorrect.
    關聯: Applied Economics 38(4), pp.449-464
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500395386
    顯示於類別:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 期刊論文
    [經濟學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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