The effect of new health information on individuals' expectations about their longevity is examined
using a Bayesian learning model. Using two-period panel-structured survey data from Taiwan, we
find that subjective probabilities of living to age 75 and 85 are significantly smaller for respondents
with more abnormal medical test outcomes and for those receiving more extensive advice on health
behavior from their physicians. The subjective probability of survival declines with health shocks
such as developing heart disease. Using pooled cross-sectional data, we find that males and married
persons are more optimistic about their longevity expectations than females and single persons, and
that income is strongly correlated with the subjective probability of living to age 75. Consistent with
previous studies, the longevity of the same-sex parent is strongly associated with an individuals own
expectation of living to age 75.
