本文旨在探討旅遊模型中，工業生產指數、物價指數及匯率對於出國旅遊人次之長、短期影響。由Johansen共整法及ARDL區間測試法，分別得到各變數間之長期均衡，存在及不存在之相反結果。由於各項單根測試發現各變數之整合齊次不盡相同，因此採用了ARDL法所得變數間不存有長期共移的結果較具說服力，ARDL法之短期分析，發現於一段固定期間內之出國旅遊總人次應是某個固定數值，若於前些月份之出國旅遊人次過高，則會衝擊當月之出國旅遊意願，使出國旅遊人次降低。本研究又以一般化衝擊反應函數進行變數間之動態跨期衝擊影響做分析，發現對出國旅遊人次之影響，除了出國旅遊人次之自身短期顯著影響之短暫性衝擊外，工業生產指數於短期間對出國旅遊人次亦有負向之短暫性衝擊。
This articles aims to discuss the long-term and short-term influence on number of overseas visitors, price index, and exchange rate. Using Johansen Cointegration Method and ARDL Bounds testing, the long-term balance of different variants and the opposite results of existing and non-existing are reached. The short-term analysis by ARDL finds that the number of outbound visitors during a fixed term should be a fixed figure, and if the number is excessively high during earlier months, then the willingness for outbound tourism of that month will be affected, and consequently, the number of outbound visitors will reduce. This study also uses generalized impact to reflect function and carries out analysis on dynamic impact of different phases among variants. It finds that industrial production index also has a brief negative impact on the number of outbound visitors within short time, other than the brief impact by outbound visitors' own short-time significant influence, concerning the influence on outbound visitors.
