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    题名: 影響來臺旅遊人數及觀光外匯收入總體變數決定因素之研究
    其它题名: The Study of the Macroeconomic Factors to Affect the Number of Inbound Visitors and Revenues
    作者: 聶建中;周明智
    贡献者: 淡江大學財務金融學系
    关键词: 來台觀光人數;觀光外匯收入;總體經濟因素;時間序列;Travel industry;Inbound visitor;Inbound revenue;Macroeconomic factor;Time series
    日期: 2002-12
    上传时间: 2009-11-30 17:48:39 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 中華民國管理科學學會
    摘要: 本文針對台灣觀光旅遊業,探討自1956年至2000年期間,最可能影響旅遊業榮枯之實質國內生產毛額、消費者物價及匯率等三個總體經濟因素與作為旅遊業興盛指標的歷年來台觀光人數及觀光外匯收入之長、短期互動影響模式。Johansen共整發現,五個選取變數間存在長期均衡關係,其共移模式含線性趨勢及二次趨勢;變數間短期互動,由Granger(1988)含誤差修正項之因果關係得知,除了匯率走勢外,來台觀光客人數的變化,對CPI、實質GDP、及觀光外匯收入等變數的走勢,均呈現顯著相對領先的地位,此外,實質GDP為觀光外匯收入之顯著領先指標;由衝擊反應函數得知;短期間,匯率的起落(升、貶),對來台觀光人數的所造成的衝擊,扮演著重要的角色,長期而言,對來台觀光人數的衝擊,取代而之的為實質GDP以及觀光外匯收入;由變異數分解可歸納;匯率以及實質的GDP波動在解釋觀光客人數的變異上,在長、短期扮演著一個輪動解釋觀光客人數變異之兩個重要關鍵角色,而來台觀光人數在解釋觀光外匯收入波動上,具有較強的解釋力。綜合上述各項結果顯示,於領先指標上,來台觀光客人數的變化,對CPI、實質GDP、以及觀光外匯收入等變數的走勢,均呈現顯著影響;從突發衝擊及波動產生的角度來觀察,發現匯率水準及實質GDP對來台觀光人數以及觀光外匯收入具有較強的衝擊影響及波動解釋能力。
    Emphasized on the travel industries of Taiwan, this study investigates the long-term and short-term dynamic relationships among the variables of travel indeices - inbound visitor and inbound revenue and macroeconomic factors - real gross domestic product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI) and exchange rate for the sample periods from 1956 through 2000. A long-term equilibrium relationship in the presence of linear trend and quadratic trend is found from the Johansen’s cointegration test. Regarding the short-term interaction among those variables, Granger causality with the error correction model found that,
    except for the trend of exchange rate, the change of the number of inbound visitors shows a significant leading position to the trend of CPI, real GDP and inbound revenue. Besides, real GDP was found obviously preceding the inbound revenue. From impulse response function, we found that the exchange rate fluctuation were the main impulse to the number of inbound visitors in short period. However, for a longer period, the main impulses to the number of inbound visitors were replaced by real GDP and inbound revenue. Finally, variance decomposition found that exchange rate and real GDP play two key roles in explanation of the variance of the number of inbound visitors no matter in short or long period, whereas it is more convincible to explain the variance of inbound revenue by the number of inbound Visitors. In view of all the above, the leading indices indicates that the number of inbound visitors shows significant influence on the trend of CPI, real GDP and inbound revenue. Besides, from impulse response and variance decomposition, inbound visitors and inbound revenue are found strongly responded to the shock of exchange rate and real GDP. Exchange rate and real GDP are also the main factors, which explain the fluctuation of inbound visitors and revenue.
    關聯: 管理學報 19(6),頁 1153-1172
    显示于类别:[財務金融學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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