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    Title: 應用馬可夫鏈探討逐點動態決策行為之研究
    Other Titles: Applying Markov Chain to Study the Node-to-Node Dynamic Route Choice Behavior
    Authors: 董啟崇;Tong, Chee-Chung;姜禹辰;Chiang, Yu-Chen
    Contributors: 淡江大學運輸管理學系
    Keywords: 逐點動態決策行為;馬可夫鏈;轉移機率;Node-to-Node Dynamic Route Choice Behavior;Markovian Decision Process;Markov Chain;Transition Probability
    Date: 2005-11
    Issue Date: 2009-11-30 14:02:51 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 臺北市 : 中華民國運輸學會
    Abstract: 馬可夫鏈為隨機過程中特殊型態,其基本定義包括狀態、轉移機率與轉移矩陣,將隨機過程透過轉移機率從一狀態轉移至另一狀態定義,藉由狀態問之轉移機率構成轉移矩陣,可應用於許多領域處理動態問題之預測分析。
    在交通資訊影響下駕駛者路徑選擇行為之研究中,過去多以個體選擇模式為基礎,通常以蘿吉特模式處理靜態型式問題,或運用普羅比模式處理靜態或動態型式問題。在本研究之前系列研究中以多項式普羅比模式描述駕駛者路徑選擇行為,並定義其行為稱為逐點動態決策行為,檢視逐點動態決策行為乃指駕駛者於整個行程中連續決策點實現路徑變換之動作,其型態表示決策對決策問關條與馬可夫鏈狀態至狀態轉換型式類似,因此描述逐點動態決策行為是否符合馬可夫鏈乃為本研究課題。
    本研究以馬可夫鏈探討逐點動態決策行為可分為三階段,第一階段根據馬可夫鏈狀態定義,定義在每一決策點駕駛者路徑變換行為屬於馬可夫鏈之狀態,並沿用系列研究之動態模擬器實驗與模式,推算駕駛者於每一決策,點變換或不變換路徑機率。第二階段定義馬可夫鏈,描述逐點決策狀態,並推算馬可夫鏈轉移機率而構建馬可夫鏈轉移矩障。第三階段根據所構建之轉移矩陣作馬可夫鏈的假設檢定,以歸納分類出不同類型駕駛者在熟悉與不熟悉地區之決策型態屬於一階馬可夫鏈或二階馬可夫鏈型式,依三類基準與兩種能力分群,共有定義六種情境區隔,最後本研究並提出馬可夫鏈轉移機率結合動態規劃以規範性方式推算出駕駛者之個人化最佳路徑選擇決策初步模型,結果發現以動態路徑基準描述逐點動態決策行為符合馬可夫鏈為佳。
    experiments under simulated environment using a special purpose in-vehicle gUidance simulator applied to Taipei metropolitan area. The statistical tests results have corifirmed that the node-to-node decision can be successfully referred to fit into a first-order Markovian Process at individual level. In addition, the study has also demonstrated the application of dynamic programming to obtain an optimal cause of routing decision for the individual driver.
    Relation: 中華民國運輸學會第二十屆學術論文研討會論文集 (第三冊)=Proceeding of the 20th annual conference for the Chinese institute of transportation v.3,頁993-1016
    Appears in Collections:[運輸管理學系暨研究所] 會議論文

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