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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/22315

    題名: 需求反應運輸系統應用於醫療運輸服務之需求預測
    其他題名: A Demand Forecast of Medical Transport Service with Demand Responsive Transport System
    作者: 張勝雄;林聖偉
    貢獻者: 淡江大學運輸管理學系
    關鍵詞: 需求反應運輸;個體選擇模式;醫療運輸;Demand responsive transport;Logit model;Medical transport
    日期: 2007-12-04
    上傳時間: 2009-11-30 14:02:10 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 中華民國運輸學會
    摘要: 面對高齡化社會的來臨,醫療運輸服務需求日愈增多,本研究旨在探討以需求反應運輸系統提供醫療運輸服務時,影響醫療運輸需求之因素,分析不同營運情境下之需求數量,俾供評估未來需求反應運輸系統營運可行性之參考。由於需求反應運輸之需求屬性 (如起迄點、旅次長度) 往往因人而異,本研究特以電腦輔助面訪調查法 (Computer Assisted Personal Interview, CAPI),依照受訪者的旅次屬性由平板電腦產生符合個人運具服務之特定情境,進行互動式問卷調查。依所調查的使用者敘述性偏好構建多項羅吉特 (MNL) 與巢式羅吉特 (NMNL) 運具選擇模式,藉此了解影響旅運者選擇之重要因素,預測潛在運量需求與市場占有率,並分析DRT 服務之相關課題,如時間價值與營運型態等。
    Demand of medical transport is going to increase in aged society. A telematics-based paratransit system- Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) seems to satisfy the requirement of medical transport service according to the European experience. However, DRT is a newly transport service in Taiwan, there are still no enough empirical studies and/or information to evaluate the feasibility of DRT operation. Due to travelers vary their trip attributes, we conduct a Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) survey with Table PC which can develop individual scenario for each traveler and obtain their Stated Preference (SP). Several discrete choice models which include Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) and Nested Multinomial Logit (NMNL) are constructed to discover the factors which affect the travelers to choose DRT service and estimate the quantity of demand of DRT. The relevant issues such as market shares, trip generation rate, time value, and operation strategies of DRT are also discussed in this study according to the results of models.
    關聯: 中華民國運輸學會96年年會暨學術論文國際研討會:追求更永續的運輸:挑戰與機會論文集=Proceedings of the 2007 International Conference and Annual Meeting of Chinese Institute of Transportation:Challenges and Opportunities Towards More Sustainable Transportation,16頁
    顯示於類別:[運輸管理學系暨研究所] 會議論文


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