An origin-destination (O-D) table that accurately portrays a study area's travel patterns is a valuable element in the modeling and analysis used to support public transportation investment decisions. The probabilistic approach to O-D table estimation involves a heuristic enumeration of link choice probabilities. The parameter Θ, which reflects the variation in path choices among tripmakers, has not been discussed in the context of O-D table estimation, nor has an efficient way been demonstrated to determine the associated link use probabilities. This paper presents a method for O-D table estimation in a stochastic network. The “OD Theta” method can not only estimate the O-D table, it also estimates the Θ parameter in the same process. The proposed method is illustrated using a sample test network. Finally, the method is applied to a real network, with the results compared to those from some well-known O-D estimation software.
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 30(4), pp.287-305