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    題名: 政府退撫基金不同政策對基金破產時間之影響
    其他題名: The Influence of Different Civil Service Pension Fund Policies on the Insolvency Timing
    作者: 葉金成;Yeh, Chih-chen;傅澤偉;Fu, Tze-wei;鄭琪玉;Cheng, Chi-yu
    貢獻者: 淡江大學會計學系
    關鍵詞: 退撫基金;現金流量;破產時間;管理政策;系統動態學;civil service pension fund;insolvency timing;management policy;system dynamics
    日期: 2007-06-01
    上傳時間: 2009-11-30 12:41:45 (UTC+8)
    出版者: 中華大學行政管理學系
    摘要: 退撫基金的經營績效或是退輔基金何時會產生入不敷出(破產)的議題一直是報章媒體持續報導的重要公共事務。廣大的退休或現職的軍公教人員一直關心此類與其切身利益相關的議題,政府是否能妥適處理退撫基金亦會影響到軍公教人員的選票流向。目前的媒體報導與學術研究著重於預測公務人員退撫基金何時破產,對於如何藉由管理來改善退撫基金以延續其經營並未提出任何建議。本論文以因果環路系統動態模型的觀點就退撫管理政策提出延續退撫基金破產時點的管理建議以供政府部門及相關研究學者參考。在現行退撫制度內進行管理政策實驗,顯示施行單一管理政策中最有效為提高提撥費率。將提撥費率提高至25%以上將使基金延緩破產危機,但由於此項管理政策並無法解決退撫基金支出大於收入的事實,基金只是延後其破產時間;在組合管理政策中,同時實施提高提撥費率至20%、增加委託經營比例50%且減少支領退休金基數比例為90%等三項管理政策,短期能遏止基金破產危機,係所有管理政策中最具成效者,但就長期而言仍無法阻止基金破產的現象。
    Topics concerning about the future cash flow of Civil Service Pension Fund (CSPF) always catch public interest. Most previous studies only focused on the possible insolvency timing, few studies discussed how to improve the management of CSPF. This paper provides a novel system dynamics model to improve the management of CSPF by simulating management policies. System-dynamics modeling combines both quantitative and qualitative research techniques to provide a new framework for applied research. In this paper, the Civil Service Pension Fund was evaluated by the system-dynamics modeling. The results from our simulations suggest that: 1. Comparing three kinds of single management policy, which includes contribution rate adjustment, trust rate adjustment, and base of retirement pension adjustment; the management policy of raising the contribution rate is the most effective policy. When the contribution rate is over 25%, it would delay the time of bankrupt on the whole pension fund. 2. If three kinds of policies are combined to form a combined management policy, this combined policy is more effective than any single policy. When the combined policy is implemented, which including raising the contribution rate from 12% to 20%, raising the trust rate from around 30% to 50%, and reducing the base of retirement pension from 100% to 90%, it would hold back the bankrupt crisis in short-term, but would not kept the trend of CSPF cash flow from going down in long-term.
    關聯: 中華行政學報 4,頁 183-204
    顯示於類別:[會計學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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