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    題名: 設計流量訂定之可靠度分析
    其他題名: Studies on the Reliability of Design Discharge
    作者: 虞國興;宋念瑾
    貢獻者: 淡江大學水資源及環境工程學系
    關鍵詞: 設計流量;可靠度分析;Design Discharge;Reliability Analysis
    日期: 1999-07
    上傳時間: 2009-08-04 14:43:36 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 於河川治理規劃時,常因不同規劃時期流量資料長度不同,所推求之設計流量會不同,規劃單位常以安全為由,不論資料長度均選擇推估值較大者為設計流量,如此不僅與統計上資料長度愈長,推估愈精準之法則相違背,亦可能不經濟。因此本研究採用兩種方法,分別利用前期(資料個數較短)推估值、後期(資料個數較長)推估值、理論值及精準度進行可靠度分析,第一為點推估法:僅針對值的部分進行分析;第二為為解決點推估法只單純比較值的大小所造成的不合理處,故以顯著水準α=0.1, 0.3, 0.5,得出後期推估流量之區間推估值,探討對於上述方法之差異。本研究利用常態分布之合成資料,針對不同迴歸週期(T=10, 25, 50, 100),結果顯示,使用後期之推估值為設計流量時,其可靠度約0.56至0.95,因此無論後期所推估之設計流量是否較前期者為小,若均採用後期推估值,應具有相當之安全性。
    In practical planning for river improvements, because the discharge data length is different depends on design timing, the estimated design discharge would be different. For the safety reason, the planners usually select the larger estimator for the design discharge without worrying about the data length. However, this way is not only in contravention of the method that the longer data length in statistic, the estimator is more precise, but also may not be economical. This study uses two different methods to calculate the probability of distribution of discharge. They are implemented to compare the estimated value of design discharge by choosing shorter length of data and longer length of data, individually, with the theoretical value to find out the accuracy of the estimated value in order to discuss how data length effects on the design discharge. The first method is called points estimated method. The second method uses the significant level α=0.1, 0.3, 0.5 to get the interval estimated value of longer length of data. By means of one kind of Normal distribution functions and return period (T=10, 25, 50, 100) to analysis the reliability. The result shows that the reliability is between 0.56 to 0.95 when the longer length of data is chosen. So, no matter the estimated design discharge of longer data is smaller than the shorter one or not. As long as we take the estimated design discharge of longer data, we should get quiet safety in the planning for river improvements.
    關聯: 第十屆水利工程研討會論文集﹝下冊﹞=Proceedings of the 10th Hydraulic Engineering Conference,頁I146-I154
    顯示於類別:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 會議論文

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