Latitude-based approach for detecting aberrations of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics

doi:10.1186/s12911-015-0236-5

機構典藏 > College of Business and Management > Graduate Institute & Department of Statistics > Journal Article > Item 987654321/128426

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/128426

Title:	Latitude-based approach for detecting aberrations of hand, foot, and mouth disease epidemics
Authors:	Tang, Jia-Hong;Chan, Ta-Chien;Shigematsu, Mika;Hwang, Jing-Shiang
Date:	2015-12-24
Issue Date:	2026-02-26 12:07:04 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	Springer Nature
Abstract:	Background Epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in East Asia have been a serious annual public health problem. Previous studies in China and island-type territories in East Asia showed that the onset of HFMD epidemics evolved with increased latitude. Based on the natural characteristics of the epidemics, we developed regression models for issuing aberration alerts and predictions. Methods HFMD sentinel surveillance data from 2008 to 2014 in Japan are used in this study, covering 365 weeks and 47 prefectures between 24 and 46° of north latitude. Average HFMD cases per sentinel are standardized as Z rates. We fit weekly Z rate differences between prefectures located in the south and north of a designated prefecture with linear regression models to detect the surging trend of the epidemic for the prefecture. We propose a rule for issuing an aberration alert determined by the strength of the upward trend of south–north Z rate differences in the previous few weeks. In addition to the warning, we predict a Z rate for the next week with a 95 % confidence interval. Results We selected Tokyo and Kyoto for evaluating the proposed approach to aberration detection. Overall, the peaks of epidemics in Tokyo mostly occurred in weeks 28–31, later than in Kyoto, where the disease peaked in weeks 26–31. Positive south–north Z rate differences in both prefectures were clearly observed ahead of the HFMD epidemic cycles. Aberrations in the major epidemics of 2011 and 2013 were successfully detected weeks earlier. The prediction also provided accurate estimates of the epidemic’s trends. Conclusions We have used only the latitude, one geographical feature affecting the spatiotemporal distribution of HFMD, to develop rules for early aberration detection and prediction. We have also demonstrated that the proposed rules performed well using real data in terms of accuracy and timeliness. Although our approach may provide helpful information for controlling epidemics and minimizing the impact of diseases, the performance could be further improved by including other influential meteorological factors in the proposed latitude-based approach, which is worth further investigation.
Relation:	BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making 15, p.113
DOI:	10.1186/s12911-015-0236-5
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Statistics] Journal Article

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
index.html		0Kb	HTML	70	View/Open

Loading...