Critical Pre-Formation Decision Flowchart to Apply Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle Predictions in Eastern North Pacific

doi:10.3390/atmos14040616

淡江大學機構典藏 > 工學院 > 水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/124262

請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/124262

題名:	Critical Pre-Formation Decision Flowchart to Apply Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle Predictions in Eastern North Pacific
作者:	Tsai, Hsiao-chung
關鍵詞:	tropical cyclone lifecycle predictions;tropical cyclone formation;ensemble model predictions;tropical cyclone medium-range track forecasting
日期:	2023-03-24
上傳時間:	2023-07-19 12:06:02 (UTC+8)
出版者:	MDPI
摘要:	We have previously demonstrated that the ECMWF ensemble (ECEPS) provides early forecasts not only of the Time-to-Tropical Storm (T2TS) and of the Time-to-Hurricane (T2HU), but also of the Time-Ending-Hurricane (TEHU) and Time-Ending-Tropical Storm (TETS) times and positions along those 15-day ECEPS track forecasts, which then provides an opportunity for high-wind warnings along the path during the entire lifecycle of these Hurricanes. The focus in this study is the Decision Flowchart that has been developed to assist the forecasters to select the pre-formation disturbance that is most likely to become the next Tropical Storm with the potential to become a Hurricane. The most crucial decision is to detect and eliminate any disturbance that likely originated from a precursor Caribbean false alarm circulation. Summaries of other steps in the Decision Flowchart “To Watch”, or to reject, other storm options in the twice-daily ECEPS forecasts are provided for Hurricanes Enrique and Felicia, and for strong Tropical Storm Guillermo and weak Tropical Storm Jimena. The first detections in the ECEPS forecasts for the Tropical Storms during the 2021 season averaged 6 days, 18 h in advance with a range of only 2 days, 6 h in advance for TS Terry to 9 days, 18 h in advance for TS Sandra.
關聯:	Atmosphere 2023 14,　616
DOI:	10.3390/atmos14040616
顯示於類別:	[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

文件中的檔案:

檔案	描述	大小	格式	瀏覽次數
index.html		0Kb	HTML	166	檢視/開啟

在機構典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

TAIR相關文章

資料載入中.....