本研究探討勞動市場的薪資風險與失業風險對尚在就學但即將就業之青年的影響，包括 就業準備與風險行為，藉由這兩個面向的觀察，探討當前青年失業率不斷提升的可能原因。 勞動市場風險雖未對青年造成直接影響，但不確定因素會形成青年行為與態度的間接影響。 過去文獻曾探討薪資與就業的不確定性會引發勞動供給的預防動機，但青年就業準備預防動 機的研究卻尚未有評估。而當前青年的高失業率隱含青年的就業準備與勞動市場風險可能有 脫鉤現象，且風險行為亦可能有逆景氣的情形。因此，即使青年尚未進入勞動市場，市場的 變化仍然可能左右青年的行為決策，最終影響了青年失業率。本研究擬使用人力運用調查資 料與高等教育資料庫進行勞動市場風險對就業準備影響的分析，以及利用人力運用調查資料 與台灣教育追蹤資料庫進行風險行為的實證分析。實證分析則是利用機率模型與有序機率模 型設定實證模型並分別進行兩個項目的迴歸分析，以所得不均度與女性婚育失業率作為捕捉 薪資與失業風險中的不公平或歧視因素。 This research investigates the effects of labor market risk on youth, including career preparation and risk behaviors. Although the labor market risks do not directly affect the youth, the correspondent behaviors and attitudes may be indirectly changed. There is copious research on the labor supply's precautionary motivations, but research studies on the youth's precautionary motivations on career preparation are not as common. In addition, the risk behavior of youth may be pro-cyclical or counter cyclical under the labor market risks. In this research we use multi-year cross-sectional data from the Manpower Utilization Survey and Taiwan Higher Education Survey to investigate the labor market risk effects on career preparation and use the Manpower Utilization Survey and Taiwan Education Panel Survey and Beyond to investigate the labor market risk effects on risk behaviors. Logit models, including the multilevel-multinomial logit model and ordered models are employed for our empirical analysis. Two instrumental variables, the Gini coefficients and female unemployment rates due to marriage and fertility, are adopted to address the inequality and discrimination of society. This study would suggest a new consideration for economics research on the youth unemployment rate.
