Opportunity for Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle Predictions from Pre-Formation to Ending Stage: Eastern North Pacific 2021 Season

doi:10.3390/atmos13071008

淡江大學機構典藏 > 工學院 > 水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/123099

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题名:	Opportunity for Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle Predictions from Pre-Formation to Ending Stage: Eastern North Pacific 2021 Season
作者:	Elsberry, Russell L.;Tsai, Hsiao-Chung;Chin, Wei-Chia;Marchok, Timothy P.
关键词:	tropical cyclone lifecycle prediction;tropical cyclone formation;ensemble model predictions;tropical cyclone medium-range track forecasting
日期:	2022-06-22
上传时间:	2023-04-28 16:58:04 (UTC+8)
出版者:	MDPI AG
摘要:	Building on previous studies of western North Pacific formation and intensity predictions along the ECMWF ensemble medium-range track forecasts, the first objective of this transition to the eastern North Pacific was to provide earlier forecasts of the Time-to-Formation (T2F) and Time-to-Hurricane (T2H) than are available from the National Hurricane Center Advisories. For the first six hurricanes of the 2021 season, the first detections in the ECMWF ensemble were 8 days to 12 days in advance of the T2F times and 9 days to 13 days in advance of the T2H times. The major advance in this study has been to document that the ECMWF ensemble is also capable of predicting Ending-T2H and Ending-T2F timings and positions along those 15-day ECMWF ensemble track forecasts. This study for the first time documents the opportunity for high wind warnings during the entire lifecycle of the 2021 season hurricanes even days in advance of formation. Validations of the pre-hurricane and Ending-hurricane tracks and timings are provided for the lifecycles of seven hurricanes and the “Almost-Hurricane Guillermo”. Because the technique has been accepted for operational testing at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, a companion article has been submitted that will describe the flowchart methodology for evaluating the twice-daily ECMWF ensemble forecasts to select the most likely pre-hurricane circulation as early as possible while non-selecting the likely false alarm circulations.
關聯:	Atmosphere 2022 13(7), 1008
DOI:	10.3390/atmos13071008
显示于类别:	[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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