Opportunity for Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle Predictions from Pre-Formation to Ending Stage: Eastern North Pacific 2021 Season

doi:10.3390/atmos13071008

機構典藏 > College of Engineering > Graduate Institute & Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering > Journal Article > Item 987654321/123099

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/123099

Title:	Opportunity for Tropical Cyclone Lifecycle Predictions from Pre-Formation to Ending Stage: Eastern North Pacific 2021 Season
Authors:	Elsberry, Russell L.;Tsai, Hsiao-Chung;Chin, Wei-Chia;Marchok, Timothy P.
Keywords:	tropical cyclone lifecycle prediction;tropical cyclone formation;ensemble model predictions;tropical cyclone medium-range track forecasting
Date:	2022-06-22
Issue Date:	2023-04-28 16:58:04 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	MDPI AG
Abstract:	Building on previous studies of western North Pacific formation and intensity predictions along the ECMWF ensemble medium-range track forecasts, the first objective of this transition to the eastern North Pacific was to provide earlier forecasts of the Time-to-Formation (T2F) and Time-to-Hurricane (T2H) than are available from the National Hurricane Center Advisories. For the first six hurricanes of the 2021 season, the first detections in the ECMWF ensemble were 8 days to 12 days in advance of the T2F times and 9 days to 13 days in advance of the T2H times. The major advance in this study has been to document that the ECMWF ensemble is also capable of predicting Ending-T2H and Ending-T2F timings and positions along those 15-day ECMWF ensemble track forecasts. This study for the first time documents the opportunity for high wind warnings during the entire lifecycle of the 2021 season hurricanes even days in advance of formation. Validations of the pre-hurricane and Ending-hurricane tracks and timings are provided for the lifecycles of seven hurricanes and the “Almost-Hurricane Guillermo”. Because the technique has been accepted for operational testing at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, a companion article has been submitted that will describe the flowchart methodology for evaluating the twice-daily ECMWF ensemble forecasts to select the most likely pre-hurricane circulation as early as possible while non-selecting the likely false alarm circulations.
Relation:	Atmosphere 2022 13(7), 1008
DOI:	10.3390/atmos13071008
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering] Journal Article

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
index.html		0Kb	HTML	124	View/Open

Loading...