National Chengchi University * Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In comparing Taiwan’s presidential elections in 2012 and 2016, looking into the influence of the cross-Strait relationship is an important research topic. Analyses of the 2012 presidential election focusing on the cross-Strait relationship therefore serve as a useful reference for such a comparison. All comments on and analyses of the outcome of Taiwan’s 2012 presidential election point to the impact of the cross-Strait economic relationship. By drawing on economic statecraft theories, this paper explores the issue through analyzing post-election survey data. Our study shows that the concern with the impact of the negative development of the cross-Strait economic relationship on Taiwan’s economy had Ma Ying-jeou lost the election significantly influenced the decisions of those voters who were dissatisfied with President Ma’s performance during his first term and yet still voted for him in the election mainly because of Ma’s position on the cross-Strait relationship. They accounted for 5.75% of the total number of voters. Given that the winning margin in the 2012 presidential election was 5.97%, the decision made by the aforementioned voters could have changed the election result. It also shows that 73.7% of the cross-Strait relationship voters were cross-Strait economic voters. Our findings demonstrate that, although the cross-Strait relationship per se may not be the most crucial factor that determines the voting choice of the Taiwan people, it however proves the influence of the cross-Strait economic relationship over the election, hence the economicization of the cross-Strait relationship. By economicization, it is meant that the cross-Strait economic relationship appears to be a dominant issue in the cross-Strait relationship.
