淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/122760
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 62830/95882 (66%)
造訪人次 : 4050626      線上人數 : 1050
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧：
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號"，以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋，建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位，可獲得較完整資料
    •  進階搜尋


    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/122760


    題名: Assessing the potential predictability of tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines on weekly timescales
    作者: Marcelino Q. Villafuerte II;Tzu-Ting Lo;Hsiao-Chung Tsai;Esperanza O. Cayanan
    關鍵詞: Extended range tropical cyclone forecasts;ENSO;MJO;The Philippines
    日期: 2021-10
    上傳時間: 2022-06-06 12:10:39 (UTC+8)
    出版者: The Chinese Geoscience Union
    摘要: This study investigates the potential predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on weekly timescales using the NCEP 16-day Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCEP-GEFS). An algorithm that uses information on selected dynamic and thermodynamic criteria was utilized to detect and track TC-like vortices (TCLV) from the 6-hourly NCEP-GEFS model runs covering a two-year period from 1 January to 31 December in 2015 and 2017. A 2 × 2 contingency table was used to summarize the event forecast relative to the observed TC occurrence and subsequent tracks over the PAR on weekly timescales. A forecast hit was declared if there is at least 50% overlap between the polygons created from the drawn circles with 500 km radius centered at the identified forecast TCLV center and the observed TC track. The hindcast period covering the evaluation of NCEP-GEFS indicate a hit-rate of 0.49 and 0.19 for the 1- and 2-week TC forecasts, respectively in the PAR. It is also revealed that the stronger the TC and the farther it developed to the eastern boundary of the PAR, which typically occur during El Niño (as in the 2015 case), the higher chance it could be forecasted one week ahead of time. Furthermore, better TC predictability in the PAR is achieved when the Madden-Julian Oscillation’s active convection phase is located over Africa and the western Indian Ocean (Phase 1) for the Week-1 forecast period and over the Maritime Continent (Phase 5) for the Week-2 forecast period.
    關聯: Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 32(5), p.741-754
    DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2021.08.23.03
    顯示於類別:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    index.html0KbHTML43檢視/開啟

    在機構典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

    TAIR相關文章

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - 回饋