English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 61875/94645 (65%)
造访人次 : 1635454      在线人数 : 10
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧:
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号",以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻,建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段,可获得较完整数据
  • 进阶搜寻

    jsp.display-item.identifier=請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/122760

    题名: Assessing the potential predictability of tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines on weekly timescales
    作者: Marcelino Q. Villafuerte II;Tzu-Ting Lo;Hsiao-Chung Tsai;Esperanza O. Cayanan
    关键词: Extended range tropical cyclone forecasts;ENSO;MJO;The Philippines
    日期: 2021-10
    上传时间: 2022-06-06 12:10:39 (UTC+8)
    出版者: The Chinese Geoscience Union
    摘要: This study investigates the potential predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on weekly timescales using the NCEP 16-day Global Ensemble Forecast System (NCEP-GEFS). An algorithm that uses information on selected dynamic and thermodynamic criteria was utilized to detect and track TC-like vortices (TCLV) from the 6-hourly NCEP-GEFS model runs covering a two-year period from 1 January to 31 December in 2015 and 2017. A 2 × 2 contingency table was used to summarize the event forecast relative to the observed TC occurrence and subsequent tracks over the PAR on weekly timescales. A forecast hit was declared if there is at least 50% overlap between the polygons created from the drawn circles with 500 km radius centered at the identified forecast TCLV center and the observed TC track. The hindcast period covering the evaluation of NCEP-GEFS indicate a hit-rate of 0.49 and 0.19 for the 1- and 2-week TC forecasts, respectively in the PAR. It is also revealed that the stronger the TC and the farther it developed to the eastern boundary of the PAR, which typically occur during El Niño (as in the 2015 case), the higher chance it could be forecasted one week ahead of time. Furthermore, better TC predictability in the PAR is achieved when the Madden-Julian Oscillation’s active convection phase is located over Africa and the western Indian Ocean (Phase 1) for the Week-1 forecast period and over the Maritime Continent (Phase 5) for the Week-2 forecast period.
    關聯: Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 32(5), p.741-754
    DOI: 10.3319/TAO.2021.08.23.03
    显示于类别:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文


    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数



    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - 回馈