淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/121760
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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/121760


    Title: Detecting the Issues of Aging Society Based on the Trend of Dependency and Support Population
    Authors: Chang, Dian-Fu;Lu, Tsung-Chieh
    Keywords: Aging society;ARIMA;Becker’s D;Dependency population;Support population
    Date: 2021-12
    Issue Date: 2021-12-20 12:10:56 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: ICIC International
    Abstract: Aging has become a prevailing phenomenon in the world. Various countries have shown moving into a super-aged society. When an aging society is confronted with a declining birthrate what will happen in its structure of the population. We assumed both aging and declining birthrate issues might change the structure of the population fundamentally in a society. This study aims to explore the issue of the population structure change in an aging society. Both dependency and support populations have been addressed with a new definition to recalculate their proportion. Taking Taiwan as an example, this study utilized the data set from 1974 to 2020 in the Ministry of Interior and transferred the original series data. Becker’s D index was used to interpret the transformation of the pattern in dependency and support population in the society. We employed ARIMA to build models for predicting a long-term trend with D. The findings suggest that the new calculation of the young dependency population at 0-20 years old is more reasonable. The new calculation D shows it can reflect sensitively the declining trend in the next decade. Even though the support population is still stable in this society, the balancing issue might become a new challenge in the future.
    Relation: ICIC Express Letters Part B: Applications 12(12), pp.1145-1153
    DOI: 10.24507/icicelb.12.12.1145
    Appears in Collections:[Depatrment of Education and Futures Design] Journal Article

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