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    jsp.display-item.identifier=請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/121758

    题名: Detecting the Impacts of Newborn Babies and its Effect on Elementary School Enrollment
    作者: Chang, Dian-Fu;Chang, Angel
    关键词: ARIMA;Education management;Enrollment of elementary schools;Declining birth rate;Time series;Cultural beliefs;Chinese zodiac
    日期: 2021-06
    上传时间: 2021-12-20 12:10:52 (UTC+8)
    出版者: ICIC International
    摘要: Factors such as war, epidemic, laws, and culture affect the worldwide birth rate whether in gender balance or birth rate itself. The Taiwanese birth rate is affected
    by traditional Chinese culture – the Chinese zodiac. The compulsory education in Taiwan begins from elementary school; thus, the declining birth rate has a direct impact on elementary school enrollment. This study intends to detect how cultural beliefs affect the number of infants and whether that affects elementary school enrollment. The target series data sets are infants and the first grade of enrollment in elementary schools. ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) was used to build predicted models for the
    number of newborn babies. The results found that the year of dragon and tiger had effects on elementary school enrollment significantly. This study suggests the Taiwanese government should launch longitudinal planning to prepare the effect of the declining birth
    rate on school enrollment, budget, and teacher preparation programs.
    關聯: ICIC Express Letters Part B: Applications 12(6), p.499-506
    DOI: 10.24507/icicelb.12.06.499
    显示于类别:[教育與未來設計學系] 期刊論文


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