Forecasting Weekly Influenza Outpatient Visits Using a Two-Dimensional Hierarchical Decision Tree Scheme

doi:10.3390/ijerph17134743

淡江大學機構典藏 > 商管學院 > 管理科學學系暨研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/120795

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题名:	Forecasting Weekly Influenza Outpatient Visits Using a Two-Dimensional Hierarchical Decision Tree Scheme
作者:	Lee, Tian-Shyug;Chen, I-Fei;Chang, Ting-Jen;Lu, Chi-Jie
关键词:	public health;influenza outpatient visits;hierarchical structure;forecasting;decision tree
日期:	2020-07
上传时间:	2021-05-08 12:11:10 (UTC+8)
摘要:	Influenza is a serious public health issue, as it can cause acute suffering and even death, social disruption, and economic loss. Effective forecasting of influenza outpatient visits is beneficial to anticipate and prevent medical resource shortages. This study uses regional data on influenza outpatient visits to propose a two-dimensional hierarchical decision tree scheme for forecasting influenza outpatient visits. The Taiwan weekly influenza outpatient visit data were collected from the national infectious disease statistics system and used for an empirical example. The 788 data points start in the first week of 2005 and end in the second week of 2020. The empirical results revealed that the proposed forecasting scheme outperformed five competing models and was able to forecast one to four weeks of anticipated influenza outpatient visits. The scheme may be an effective and promising alternative for forecasting one to four steps (weeks) ahead of nationwide influenza outpatient visits in Taiwan. Our results also suggest that, for forecasting nationwide influenza outpatient visits in Taiwan, one- and two-time lag information and regional information from the Taipei, North, and South regions are significant.
關聯:	International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17(13), 4743 (14 pages)
DOI:	10.3390/ijerph17134743
显示于类别:	[管理科學學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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