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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/119655


    Title: 1-4 週颱風系集預報評估與比較
    Authors: 蔡孝忠;羅資婷;陳孟詩;陳昀靖
    Keywords: 颱風;展期預報;歷史再預報
    Date: 2020-10-14
    Issue Date: 2020-11-25 12:11:23 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究評估未來1-4週之颱風預報技術。主要採用2種全球系集模式之歷史再預報資料
    (reforecast):(1)美國NCEP GEFS之35天系集預報模式(SubX版本;簡稱GEFS-SubX);(2)歐洲ECMWF之45天系集預報模式(簡稱ECEPS)。本研究採用中央氣象局之熱帶氣旋偵測程式(簡稱CWB TC Tracker;Tsai et al. 2011),進行1-4週之熱帶氣旋自動偵測。CWB TC Tracker已於中央氣象局實際應用於多個系集模式之熱帶氣旋自動偵測,以監測未來1-4週之熱帶氣旋活動狀況,協助預報員評估颱⾵可能形成區域、路徑影響區域…等颱風展期(extended-range)預報資訊。
    初步評估結果顯示,相較於GEFS-SubX歷史再預報,ECEPS之ROC(receiver operating
    characteristic curve)曲線較佳,AUC(Area Under Curve)高出8-10%。整體而言,ECEPS於一、二週
    之POD(Probability of Detection)及TS(Threat Score)較高;兩模式於第三、四週之各項指標差異則較小。模式在第三、四週之POD雖仍可維持63-68%,但是誤報率也較高。本研究亦評估大尺度環境場(例如:ENSO與MJO)與熱帶氣旋預報技術的關聯性,將於會議中報告詳細評估結果。
    Appears in Collections:[Graduate Institute & Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering] Proceeding

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