English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文笔数/总笔数 : 60696/93562 (65%)
造访人次 : 1046378      在线人数 : 30
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
搜寻范围 查询小技巧:
  • 您可在西文检索词汇前后加上"双引号",以获取较精准的检索结果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜寻,建议至进阶搜寻限定作者字段,可获得较完整数据
  • 进阶搜寻


    jsp.display-item.identifier=請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/119567


    题名: Opportunity for Early Warnings of Typhoon Lekima from Two Global Ensemble Model Forecasts of Formation with 7-Day Intensities along Medium-Range Tracks
    作者: Tsai, Hsiao-Chung;Elsberry, Russell L.;Chin, Wei-Chia;Marchok, Timothy P.
    关键词: tropical cyclone formation;track forecasts;intensity forecasts;early hydrological warnings
    日期: 2020-10-27
    上传时间: 2020-11-16 12:11:03 (UTC+8)
    出版者: MDPI
    摘要: Typhoon Lekima (2019) with its heavy rains and floods is an excellent example of the need to provide the earliest possible warnings of the formation, intensification, and subsequent track before a typhoon makes landfall along a densely populated coast. To demonstrate an opportunity to provide early (10 days in advance) warnings of the threat of Typhoon Lekima, the ensemble models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the National Centers for Environmental Predictions have been used to provide time-to-formation timing and positions along the weighted-mean vector motion track forecasts. In addition, the seven-day intensity forecasts after the formation using a weighted analog intensity prediction technique are provided. A detailed description of one European Center ensemble forecast is provided to describe the methodology for estimating the formation time and generating the intensity forecasts. Validation summary tables of the formation timing and position errors, and the intensity errors versus the Joint Typhoon Warning Center intensities, are presented. The availability of these ensemble forecasts would have been an opportunity to issue alerts/watches/warnings of Lekima even seven days in advance of when Lekima became a Tropical Storm. These ensemble forecasts also represent an opportunity to extend support on the 5–15 day timescale for the decision-making processes of water resource management and hydrological operations.
    關聯: Atmosphere 11(11), 1162
    DOI: 10.3390/atmos11111162
    显示于类别:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

    文件中的档案:

    档案 描述 大小格式浏览次数
    index.html0KbHTML80检视/开启
    Opportunity for Early Warnings of Typhoon Lekima from Two Global Ensemble Model Forecasts of Formation with 7-Day Intensities along Medium-Range Tracks.pdf21390KbAdobe PDF1检视/开启

    在機構典藏中所有的数据项都受到原著作权保护.

    TAIR相关文章

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - 回馈