Evaluating real estate development project with Monte Carlo based binomial options pricing model

doi:10.1080/13504851.2019.1616049

淡江大學機構典藏 > 工學院 > 土木工程學系暨研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/119458

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題名:	Evaluating real estate development project with Monte Carlo based binomial options pricing model
作者:	Yeh, I. C.;Lien, C. H.
關鍵詞:	real estate development;real option;binomial option pricing model (BOPM);Monte Carlo simulation
日期:	2019-05-19
上傳時間:	2020-10-29 12:10:14 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Taylor & Francis Group
摘要:	This paper proposes three evaluation models for evaluating the value of strategic waiting of real estate development project. In Model 1, the ratio of land cost to total real estate sales in period (t) and period (t+1) is uncorrelated (random). In Model 2, the ratio is unchanged (constant). Model 3 integrates Models 1 and 2 with the “land value persistence factor”. The larger the factor, the more the land cost tends to consider only the previous land price. This study uses the Binomial Option Pricing Model and Monte Carlo Simulation hybrid method to solve these three models. In addition, this research also proposes a method for estimating the net present value of project expansion on the time axis. The results show that five main factors influencing the expected value of the option value are the real estate price rate of change, present value of total real estate sales, duration, land value persistence factor, and present value of land. Regardless of the land value persistence factor, the longer the time, the expected value of the option value tends to increase. However, when the land value persistence factor is larger, the expected value of the option value increases more.
關聯:	Applied Economics Letters 27(4), p.307-324
DOI:	10.1080/13504851.2019.1616049
顯示於類別:	[土木工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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