Detecting the Issue of Higher Education Over-Expanded Under Declining Enrollment Times

doi:10.1057/s41307-019-00163-z

淡江大學機構典藏 > 教育學院 > 教育與未來設計學系 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/116973

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题名:	Detecting the Issue of Higher Education Over-Expanded Under Declining Enrollment Times
作者:	Shu-Jing Wu, Dian-Fu Chang, Hui Hu
关键词:	ARIMA;declining birth rate;enrollment;higher education;higher education policy;over-expanded
日期:	2019-08-29
上传时间:	2019-09-13 12:10:14 (UTC+8)
出版者:	Palgrave Macmillan
摘要:	Various perspectives on higher education have been addressed to support the arguments of expansion issues, while studies on prediction to tackle the phenomenon are very limited. In this study, we focus on series data for tackling the problem of over-expansion in higher education and explore how the decrease in birth rate and potential enrollment might challenge the oversupply system. Based on time-series data from the Ministry of Education and Ministry of the Interior in Taiwan, we conducted a cross-correlation function and ARIMA models to detect trends in student cohorts and enrollment. The results reveal that enrollment in the higher education system will drop significantly in the next 10 years. Based on the trajectory, this study suggests remodeling the higher education system to adapt to the trend of potential enrollment. This study suggests that cutting current capacity is the most likely strategy for the Ministry of Education. Related policy makers and institutional leaders should consider both local boundaries and the global context when reinventing the higher education system.
關聯:	Higher Education Policy v.34, p.747-770
DOI:	10.1057/s41307-019-00163-z
显示于类别:	[教育與未來設計學系] 期刊論文

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