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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/116973


    Title: Detecting the Issue of Higher Education Over-Expanded Under Declining Enrollment Times
    Authors: Shu-Jing Wu, Dian-Fu Chang, Hui Hu
    Keywords: ARIMA;declining birth rate;enrollment;higher education;higher education policy;over-expanded
    Date: 2019-08-29
    Issue Date: 2019-09-13 12:10:14 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
    Abstract: Various perspectives on higher education have been addressed to support the arguments of expansion issues, while studies on prediction to tackle the phenomenon are very limited. In this study, we focus on series data for tackling the problem of over-expansion in higher education and explore how the decrease in birth rate and potential enrollment might challenge the oversupply system. Based on time-series data from the Ministry of Education and Ministry of the Interior in Taiwan, we conducted a cross-correlation function and ARIMA models to detect trends in student cohorts and enrollment. The results reveal that enrollment in the higher education system will drop significantly in the next 10 years. Based on the trajectory, this study suggests remodeling the higher education system to adapt to the trend of potential enrollment. This study suggests that cutting current capacity is the most likely strategy for the Ministry of Education. Related policy makers and institutional leaders should consider both local boundaries and the global context when reinventing the higher education system.
    Relation: Higher Education Policy
    DOI: 10.1057/s41307-019-00163-z
    Appears in Collections:[Master's Program, Graduate Institute of Educational Policy and Leadership] Journal Article

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