This paper employs an ARJI-trend model that combines the autoregressive jump intensity (ARJI) and component models to analyze the effects of the U.S. dollar index and oil prices on the dynamic properties of biofuel-related commodity futures. The results show that the ARJI-trend model not only provides a better fit for the data on the volatility dynamics of corn, soybean, and wheat futures, but also performs better in terms of out-of-sample forecasting. The U.S. dollar index and oil prices both generate significant impacts on the returns of the futures. Since the coexistence of permanent component, transitory component, and time-varying jumps are observed in those futures, the ARJI-trend model is beneficial for acquiring a better understanding of the differential attributes among corn, soybean, and wheat futures.
Journal of International Money and Finance 96, p.37-48