Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.04.003

淡江大學機構典藏 > 商管學院 > 產業經濟學系暨研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/116030

請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/116030

題名:	Predicting the failures of prediction markets: A procedure of decision making using classification models
作者:	Chung-Ching Tai;Hung-Wen Lin;Bin-Tzong Chie;Chen-Yuan Tung
關鍵詞:	Combining forecasts;Support vector machine;Decision trees;Principal component analysis;Discriminant analysis;Imbalanced data;Oversampling;SMOTE
日期:	2019
上傳時間:	2019-03-20 12:10:36 (UTC+8)
摘要:	Prediction markets have been an important source of information for decision makers due to their high ex post accuracies. Nevertheless, recent failures of prediction markets remind us of the importance of ex ante assessments of their prediction accuracy. This paper proposes a systematic procedure for decision makers to acquire prediction models which may be used to predict the correctness of winner-take-all markets. We commence with a set of classification models and generate combined models following various rules. We also create artificial records in the training datasets to overcome the imbalanced data issue in classification problems. These models are then empirically trained and tested with a large dataset to see which may best be used to predict the failures of prediction markets. We find that no model can universally outperform others in terms of different performance measures. Despite this, we clearly demonstrate a result of capable models for decision makers based on different decision goals.
關聯:	International Journal of Forecasting 35(1), p.297-312
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.04.003
顯示於類別:	[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

文件中的檔案:

檔案	描述	大小	格式	瀏覽次數
index.html		0Kb	HTML	177	檢視/開啟
Predicting the failures of prediction markets A procedure of decision making using classification models.pdf		832Kb	Adobe PDF	6	檢視/開啟

在機構典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

TAIR相關文章

資料載入中.....