Detecting the Issues of Population Aging by Using ARIMA Model

淡江大學機構典藏 > 教育學院 > 教育政策與領導研究所 > 期刊論文 > Item 987654321/115603

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題名:	Detecting the Issues of Population Aging by Using ARIMA Model
作者:	Chang, Dian-Fu;Lin, Yi Hsing;Nyeu, Fong-Yee
關鍵詞:	Aging index;ARIMA;Population aging;Potential support ratio;Time series analysis
日期:	2019-01
上傳時間:	2018-11-22 12:10:18 (UTC+8)
出版者:	ICIC International
摘要:	Population aging is poised to become one of the most significant social transformations of the twenty-first century. Perceived the rapidly increasing population aging, this study selected Taiwan as a target to tackle the issue. Previous studies have warned the drawbacks of composite indicators dealing with aging issues, therefore this study tries to find an alternative way to fit series data in an aging society. To achieve the specific purposes, the study aims to create appropriate indices to further interpret the issues of population aging. The time series analysis was carried out in this study by using the Minitab® statistical package. The result of the ARIMA model reveals the increasing of over 65 year-old adults in Taiwan will up to a new high in next decade. While the potential support ratio will decline speedily. Realized the gap, the suggestions provide for the policy makers to deal with the issues more effectively.
關聯:	ICIC Express Letters Part B: Applications 10(1), p. 39-46
DOI:	10.24507/icicelb.10.01.47
顯示於類別:	[教育政策與領導研究所] 期刊論文

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