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    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/115519

    題名: Estimating the Gaps between Potential Enrollment Numbers and Kindergarten Capacities by Using Time Series Models
    作者: Chang, Dian-Fu;Huang, Huei-Ting;ChangTzeng, Hsiao-Chi
    關鍵詞: ARIMA;Kindergarten capacity;Management strategy;Newborn babies;Time series analysis
    日期: 2018-12
    上傳時間: 2018-11-07 12:10:13 (UTC+8)
    出版者: ICIC International
    摘要: This study selected Taiwan as a target to tackle the issue of gap between potential enrollment numbers and kindergarten capacities (KC). The purposes of this study are to realize the effect of 0-year babies (ZYB) declining existing in Taiwan, to project the future development of ZYB and to estimate the gap between ZYB and KC in the system. This study selects the ARIMA model to verify the robustness of forecasting ZYB. Employing the projecting data of ZYB, this study calculates the gaps between ZYB and estimated KC in next decade. Based on the fittest ARIMA model and the gap estimation, this study found the one-year model of KC is oversupply and the gaps will increase steadily. The gaps between demands and supplies in two-year model of KC are diminishing in next decade. This study provides a practical method to detect whether it is an issue of oversupply in the kindergarten system. Both predict and estimate models provide useful knowledge to reinvent management strategies to ameliorate the issue of the system.
    關聯: ICIC Express Letters Part B: Applications, 9(12),p.1241-1248 (Scopus)
    DOI: 10.24507/icicelb.09.12.1241
    顯示於類別:[教育政策與領導研究所] 期刊論文


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