本研究旨在探討抗景氣循環的財政政策能否穩定產業出口的波動程度。吾人以Rajan and Zingales (1998)的模型為基礎，按本文的研究目的加以修改，並以此實證模型分析1989-2004年間跨國(22國)跨產業(27產業)的資料。本研究的實證結果顯示，抗景氣循環的財政政策能穩定那些對外融資程度較高的產業之出口波動性。而這個主要的實證結果亦通過多項穩健性檢測。因此本研究結果對於抗景氣 循環的財政政策亦能穩定對外貿易的波動，提供進一步的實證證據。
This paper investigates the effect of a counter-cyclical fiscal policy on stabilizing the volatility of industrial export. Specifically, I apply the empirical specification of Rajan and Zingales (1998) to a cross-country, crossindustry data on a sample of 22 countries along with 27 industries over the 1989–2004 period. The benchmark result shows that economies with a more counter-cyclical fiscal policy are associated with relatively more stable exports in industries that rely more on external finance. This finding is robust to the use of alterative measures of export volatility, distinct indices of fiscal countercyclicality, different measures of industry-level external finance, additional controls of other macroeconomic policy, and financial crisis.
